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What if the climate scientists are right about global warming? Part 2
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Global warming has attracted enough heat to cause global warming, so it's very nice to read Steven Andrews' honest and gentle critique of my work here and (submitted contemporaneously) on Daily Kos. Some of his criticism is quite correct, and I'll try and modify my work habits accordingly in future.
As part of his critique, Andrews challenges me to ask you what happens if the climate scientists (I assume he means those scientists favoring the hypothesis that anthropogenic contributions of greenhouse gases are raising temperatures dangerously) are right? We'll call his article Part 1 and this will be Part 2.
So the challenge goes out to you. I think it's appropriate that I be the first to respond.
If temperatures do rise 3-4 degrees Fahrenheit over the next 90 years, it will be a problem. That rate of change will cause a lot of disruption to agriculture and even urban living patterns. In the developed world, changing crop mixes and leaving the air conditioner on will be convenient fixes, but both are likely to increase CO2 emissions, at least until we get the right energy generating mix. It will be tougher in the southern hemisphere, as their communities and regions are not as resilient--because they are generally poorer, they won't have as many easy options.
For the first 70 years, agriculture is predicted to become more productive. Because most warming has to date been observed in the north, during winter, during night, many will say it isn't a problem, it's a solution. Many have already noted that cold generally kills more than heat, although cold prematurely harvests the elderly, while heat kills the younger and poorer.
After 2080, the effects will seem less benign. If precipitation follows projected patterns, floods and hurricanes may well be a more frequent threat than today. If we keep rushing to build in threatened areas, we will have to also rush to rebuild. And there will be other impacts as well.
But I have no doubt that we will adapt. It is estimated that adapting to climate change will cost two to three percent of world GDP. That's a lot--but we can afford it. If we are successful at picking the low-hanging fruit now, by converting to greener energy sources, reducing our emissions on a curve that starts low and moves upward, if we weatherise buildings, improve public transportation, incentivise reduction in energy consumption, it will be easier. If we wait for the last minute, we will feel rather stupid. But we will adapt--that's what we do.
What I do not think will happen is dramatic ice melt in the Arctic, Antarctic, or Greenland. Sea level rise, which has been slowing for centuries, may pick up a bit. But the model will be the Netherlands and adaptation, not Atlantis and drowning. I do not think there will be a dramatic explosion of malaria--although some more exotic tropical diseases may make an appearance.
As a 'lukewarmer' I actually think this scenario is not so far from how things will play out. What do the rest of you think?
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