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Do preseason polls mean anything?
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As leaves of different hues hit the ground, and kids of all ages don costumes of their favorite super hero or cartoon character, the aroma of college basketball fills the brisk autumn air. While teams scramble to prepare for the non-conference season, sportswriters from across the country and the National Association of Basketball Coaches are preparing for one of the most meaningless rituals in amateur hoops –
The preseason poll.
My opinion rings loudly and with ill timing, as Examiner.com will soon roll out a poll of our own, in which I will participate. The format is not where my ire is directed. It's the sheer lunacy of voting for the top teams in the country without having seen them for a single minute on the hardwood. Using a combination of past results and statistical prognostication, those with a ballot have the unenviable task of ranking the top squads from more than 300 collections of men that they have never seen work together. Why not wait until mid-December, when most conferences are beginning their league slate? Besides, how many coaches that have the ability to vote actually watch many other teams?
Get my drift? It's impossible to make accurate predictions… but regardless, every major media outlet makes an attempt.
This year's Associated Press Poll and USA Today/ESPN Coaches Poll were released this week, and the Kansas Jayhawks sit in the top spot after receiving 55 of a possible 65 first-place votes from the AP, and 27 of 31 coaches' votes. What are the odds they finish atop the final regular season AP poll? How many teams in the preseason top 25 will remain there? Only time will tell, but recent trends show that the first forecast of the year has flaws.
Last season's preseason top team, the North Carolina Tar Heels, finished the final AP poll before the NCAA Tournament in the second position. In fact, going back to the 1992-93 season, the top vote-getter in the preseason AP poll has won the National Championship just four times. In 2003 and 2006, the Tournament winner (Syracuse and Florida, respectively) weren't even listed amongst the top-25 in the first poll.
Analyzing the 2008-09 polls, there are some major statistical misfires…
• The only team to finish the season in the same spot as their preseason AP ranking was Gonzaga, ranked #10
• There were eight teams in the preseason top-25 that didn't finish there, including 7th-ranked Texas, 9th-ranked Notre Dame and 22nd-ranked Georgetown (who finished 16-15, 7-11 in the Big East)
• The teams that finished in the top-25 without having been ranked there in the preseason include 9th-ranked Missouri and 16th-ranked Florida State, who received absolutely no preseason votes
• Baylor, the AP's 28th-ranked preseason team, finished 5-11 in the Big 12
• Stanford, the AP's 50th-ranked preseason team, finished 6-12, in ninth place in the Pac-10
Plus, this season's preseason polls came with their share of questions…
• Is there really one writer who thinks North Carolina is the best team in the land following the loss of their four best players?.gif)
• How did Southern Illinois drum up more votes in the USA Today/ESPN Coaches Poll (3) than Northern Iowa (1) when the Salukis lost their leading rebounder and two starting guards from a 13-18 team, and the Panthers return all five starters from their 23-11 squad from a year ago?
• Will talent trump experience and allow Kentucky to live up to its top-5 billing in both polls?
What does all this mean? Not much, other than the preseason polls seem to exist solely for the purpose of lighting the college basketball fire in fans across the country. Outside the top five or six teams, predicting the best hoop troop in October for anything other than entertainment value is a bit insignificant. Stick to watching as many games as possible, and pass judgment later.
Stay tuned to the Bradley Braves Examiner site for the best Missouri Valley coverage on the internet. Soon to come... the Valley team previews!
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