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Refugees are flooding out of the district of Buner in Pakistan as government forces unleash an offensive against suspected Taliban positions. The Buner district is within 65 miles of the capital Islamabad, highlighting the growing danger posed to Pakistan’s central government by Taliban forces.
Buner borders the Swat Valley which has largely been ceded to the Taliban by the Pakistani government. The government allowed Sharia Law to be applied in Swat by Taliban forces in return for their laying down their arms. Instead, the Taliban have used the agreement to declare victory and may be attempting to increase their territorial claims, as the presence of militants in Buner would suggest.
Appeasement has failed. The Pakistani government has attempted to grant the Taliban autonomy on several occasions in return for demilitarization. Most of the ceasefires collapsed leaving the Taliban in a position of greater strength than when the agreements were organized. The Swat agreement was particularly worrisome to Western officials because of the proximity to Islamabad and because of the history of such endeavors.
The Swat agreement in Pakistan highlights the difficulties the central government in Pakistan has when confronted with the Taliban. Sending the Pakistani military against other Pakistanis has been largely unpopular. Many claim that the US is behind such operations. The Taliban is also an effective guerilla fighting force capable of inflicting heavy casualties on Pakistani soldiers. Previous fights have been long and deadly on both sides. The difference is that as conflicts persist, support for the Taliban surges while support for the government declines. Quite simply, the government does not have the support or capabilities to stamp out the threat from the Taliban. Meanwhile, the Taliban grows stronger, penetrating deeper into Pakistan, and threatening to further destabilize an already troubled region.