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'Very good' chance of successful missile Intercept if political leaders give OK
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U.S. and Japanese defenses have a high probability of success, if they are ordered to shoot down a North Korean ballistic missile that is currently being prepared for launch.
That’s the assessment of a senior defense industry executive who is a veteran of the missile defense program. In an interview with Examiner.com, he said odds for a successful intercept are “very good,” based the availability of “layered” missile defenses, continued technological improvements, and Pyongyang’s planned launch window.
Speaking on the condition of anonymity, the missile defense manager noted that a number of assets have been positioned along the projected flight path of the Tapeodong-2 missile, scheduled for launch in early April. He said the “density” of those defensive systems gives the U.S. and Japan more flexibility in potentially targeting the TD-2, which is capable of striking Hawaii and Alaska.
In recent days, the Japanese Maritime Self-Defense Force has dispatched three of its four Kongo-class destroyers to waters off North Korea. All are equipped with the U.S.-built Aegis radar system, which allows them to track and engage ballistic missile targets.
Two of the Japanese vessels also carry the specially-modified SM-3 surface-to-air missile, used to of intercept ballistic missiles at long range. The third vessel is expected to provide additional radar coverage for a potential intercept.
The U.S. has also positioned two Aegis destroyers in the Sea of Japan. Both of those ships are equipped with the SM-3. South Korea's only Aegis vessel also sortied, in preparation for the North Korean missile launch.
Along with its naval deployment, Japan’s Defense Ministry has also positioned land-based Patriot surface-to-air missiles along the nation’s northern coast, creating another defensive layer. In a statement released Friday, the ministry said it ground and naval missile defenses had been ordered to “shoot down the rocket and any debris that could fall on Japan.”
It marks the first time that Japan’s military has issued such a directive.
The order is considered particularly bold, given the country’s post-war, pacifist constitution that limits its military to defensive missions. The U.S. missile defense expert described the Japanese actions as “necessary,” and not an overt comment on what he described as Washington’s “glaring lack of leadership” on the TD-2 launch.
Earlier this week, Secretary of State Hillary Clinton said the United States had no plans to intercept the North Korean missile. If Pyongyang persists with its launch plans, Mrs. Clinton said the U.S. will “take up the matter through appropriate channels.”
Washington’s apparent reluctance to consider military options has created consternation among our allies in the region, particularly the Japanese. “Rest assured, they’d rather not have been put in this position” [by U.S. inaction], the defense executive commented.
He also suggested that the American military has been somewhat confused by the administration’s handling of the latest North Korean crisis. The expert said that recent comments by Admiral Timothy Keating, commander of U.S. forces in the Pacific, seemed to be both a statement of our capabilities and a veiled request for guidance.
In press interviews and Congressional testimony over the past three weeks, Keating expressed confidence that his missile defenses could knock down the TD-2, but only if they were ordered to do so. According to the missile defense manager, the “orders” comment was aimed--at least in part--at the White House, trying to prod the administration into a more definitive stance on a possible intercept.
Keating was subsequently criticized for his remarks by administration officials, who claimed the admiral’s remarks were threatening diplomatic overtures toward Pyongyang. Admiral Keating has made no further comments on the matter since Secretary Clinton announced that the U.S. will not attempt to intercept the missile.
Pyongyang officially claims that the TD-2 will be used to place a communications satellite in orbit, but the missile defense executive--and other analysts--reject those claims.
“Peaceful, space-faring nations have no reason to disguise their space launch vehicles,” he said. “I personally believe this is a hostile missile test.” Intelligence reports suggest that North Korean technicians have placed a shroud over the upper stages of the TD-2, currently being readied at the Musudan-ri test facility on the country’s northeastern coast.
Pyongyang employed similar measures before a 2006TD-2 launch, to prevent a definitive assessment of the missile’s payload. That test ended in failure when the long-range missile broke apart, barely 100 seconds into its flight. Before that launch, President George W. Bush placed U.S. missile defenses on higher alert, and vowed to shoot down the TD-2.
But President Obama has apparently rejected that option, despite continuing advances in ballistic missile defenses. The industry executive noted that the Aegis/SM-3 combination and the Army's Theater High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) system have achieved "stellar" records in recent tests. He openly wondered if the commander-in-chief was fully aware of these capabilities before opting against a potential intercept.
The missile defense executive also noted that ground-based interceptor missiles, based in Alaska and California, could be used to engage the TD-2 in the middle stage of its flight. While skeptics have expressed doubt about that system's reliability, the executive observed that tests are modeled on the North Korean threat.
He also claimed that Pyongyang's plan for a day time launch would "greatly improve" chances for a successful intercept--if one is ordered. Technological advances have also enhanced the ability of defensive systems to discriminate between the missile warhead and other components, such as rocket boosters.
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