Cal eyes payback against Oregon State

November 14, 6:31 PMCal Bears ExaminerRob Calonge

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As the season begins to wind down, the post-season picture begins to gain clarity.  This clarity is what allows coaches, players, and fans to know what it is that their team needs to accomplish over these final weeks of the season in order to reach primary or secondary goals that they have for their team.

For the Bears, they are still in the hunt for the Holliday Bowl at the end of the year.  While it's still very possible for them to receive the Rose Bowl bid that all Pac-10 teams covet, it would require too many circumstances to be a logical hope.  By beating Oregon State on Saturday, the Bears would only need to win out and hope for another loss by Arizona to take second place in the Pac-10.  Due to Arizona's victory over the Bears on October 18, Cal will be rooting for Oregon, Oregon State, and Arizona State over the Wildcats' next three games.

#23 Oregon State finds themselves in the catbird's seat right now.  They need to defeat Cal, Arizona, and Oregon to win the Pac-10 title and get the Rose Bowl bid.  Winning all three could get them much more though.  While they are still in the lower end of the rankings, finishing the season with only one loss could catapult them into a national title game if everything were to fall their way.  Chances are, getting to and winning the Rose Bowl would be enough to give them a top five ranking at  the end of the year.

Cal and Oregon State have winning streaks against each other over the past five years.  Oregon State has won three in a row at Memorial Stadium in Berkeley, while the Bears have won the last two in Corvallis for a five-game visitors winning streak between the two teams.  The Bears would love to return the favor of last year when they lost to the Beavers while being on the verge of being ranked #1 for the first time in over 50 years.

Cal should have much better luck this week on offense than they had last week against Southern Cal, but maybe not much better.  They'll face the 17th ranked team in total defense, ranking 27th against the rush and 25th in pass defense efficiency.  The Beavers have allowed an average of 21.89 points a game to rank #45 in the country in defensive scoring.

In all likelihood, this could end up being a low scoring affair.  Cal's defensive acumen is nothing to sneeze at either.  The Bears rank 30th in total defense and come off of a game where they held more than their own against the 12th best offense in the country.  The Bears rank 33rd against the rush, but sixth in the nation when it comes to pass efficiency defense.  Overall, they are 36th when it comes to scoring defense, allowing only 20.56 points per game.

As far as injuries go, the Bears expect to be nearly full strength with Jahvid Best returning kicks and right guard Noris Malele a game-time decision.  Malele did practice both Wednesday and Thursday so it's a good bet that he's ready to come back.

For Oregon State, their once backup and current starter, Lyle Moevao, should be ready to go on Saturday.  Should he not be, then their once starter and now backup Sean Canfield is fully healthy and on a hot streak.  Since coming off the bench to fill in for Moevao two weeks ago, he's completed 70% of his passes for 440 yards and four touchdowns.  Starting slot receiver, Shane Morales is expected to play after injuring himself last week trying to dunk a ball over the goal post.  If he can't recover in time, third-year sophomore Casey Kjos will get the start.

Cal Bears (6-3, 4-2) ; Last Week : Lost at USC Trojans 17-3

Keys on Offense: For the Bears to succeed in Corvallis, they'll have to be able to avoid the critical drive-halting penalties that often ails a visiting team.  For that to happen, the offensive line is going to have to play one of their better games of the season.  Last week against USC, the Bears committed five false starts, two holding penalties, and a game-killing ineligible man downfield / illegal procedure penalty that took a touchdown off the board.  Even all-everything center Alex Mack was guilty of a false start during the game.  These types of penalties put too much pressure on the offense to expect consistent drives to be made.

Kevin Riley will get a chance to get his revenge for his first start of his NCAA career.  He leads the 49th ranked offense into Corvallis and he'll do it as the unquestioned signal caller for the first time since he was knocked out of the UCLA game with a concussion two weeks ago.  The Oregon native will have to remain poised and try not to do too much in this game.  If Riley can't do that, the Beavers' opportunistic defense will make it a long day for Bears Backers.

Against USC, Riley came in for the second-half of play and completed only four passes on 16 attempts for a meager 56 yards.  Part of that had to do with receivers dropping balls and part of that had to do with throws not being perfectly placed due to the amount of pressure the quarterback was feeling in the pocket.  If the Bears expect to win, they'll have to be effective with the pass in order to free up the running lanes so that Best and Shane Vereen can get loose at the second level.

The Bears will get a major boost this Saturday when Best begins returning kicks again.  Prior to injury, he was averaging 31.6 yards-per-return and ranked fifth in the nation.  Syd'Quan Thompson is returning punts for Cal and doing quite well also.  For the season, he ranks 24th in the nation with a 11.7 yards-per-return.

Keys on Defense: While the Bears did hold their own on defense last week against the Trojans, the final score to the game could've been much worse than it actually was.  For the game, the defense allowed 411 yards and 173 of them were on the ground.  Another performance like that this week and the Beavers' leading rusher could make them pay.  Ranked 10th in the nation, true freshman Jacquizz Rodgers will make the nifty move in the open field, slide off of tackles and give a stiff arm when necessary.  Rodgers has already gained 1,089 yards and scored 10 touchdowns, making him the Pac-10's top rusher on the season.

Oregon State has the 25th ranked offense in all of Div I, so they'll be a difficult stop for the Bears.  Cal will need to pressure Moevao and also mix up their schemes.  While Moevao has been a good passer for the Beavers, he has been prone to throwing interceptions.  He's thrown for 1822 yards, completing 63.3% of his passes and scoring 14 touchdowns, but he's also thrown eight interceptions which have dropped his quarterback rating down to 139.69.  The Bears will have to bounce back from last week, where they broke even in the turnover battle.  It will be important for them to capitalize on the turnover opportunities they get.  Nothing takes a home crowd out of a game like a turnover does, except for maybe a touchdown on a turnover.

Freshman Ray Guy Award finalist, Bryan Anger should give Cal a huge advantage in terms of field position.  Anger ranks as the 15th best punter in the nation, but he's really been much better than the ranking suggests.  His only problem this season has been his slow delivery of the punt, which has resulted in a couple of blocks.  The threat of another block has also caused him to force some of his punts, but even then he gets enough distance and avoids the poor punt.  The Bears would like to see him make a huge difference on Saturday.

#23 Oregon State Beavers (6-3, 5-1) ; Last Week : Won at UCLA Bruins 34-6

Keys on Offense: Moevao, like Riley, was knocked out of the game two weeks ago and will be making his first start since then.  Unlike the Cal signal-caller, his injury may have more of an affect on the way he plays Saturday.  Moevao's injured shoulder is fine, but he's still feeling some pain with some of his throws.  If he's not on his game, head coach MIke Riley will need to have a quick hook.  The Beavers are secure with their backup situation having former starter Canfield on the sidelines.  The only question is, if Moevao isn't playing well, how much damage does Riley allow before replacing him?

With Oregon State's uncertain quarterback situation coupled with Cal's inability to stop the run last week, the Beavers will look to Rodgers to carry more than his fair share of the load.  If Rodgers can have another solid-to-outstanding performance, then Moevao won't have to operate in too many third and long situations, opening up the short passing game.

The last thing the Beavers want to do is rely on the passing game with their starting quarterback still hurting and their starting slot receiver, Morales, questionable to play.

On special teams, they'll have their hands full.  The Beavers' top punt returner, Sammie Stroughter, averages only nine yards per-punt-return, while, as a team, the Beavers average a little under 24 yards per kick return.  Oregon State will have to find a way to shock Cal in this area or else they are going to be playing on a much longer field than the Bears, which usually equals a tougher time scoring.

Keys on Defense: Despite the Bears' struggles running the ball, it doesn't change the fact that opposing defenses have to gameplan for their exceptional running backs.  Cal has yet to prove that their passing game can carry them to wins, so the biggest key for the Beavers is to make sure that Best or Vereen don't gain big chunks of ground when they get the ball.  USC was able to expose some of the weaknesses in Cal's running game by continuing to get penetration in the backfield on runs with linebacker blitzes.  The Beavers will probably attempt the same, hoping the results are the same.

For all of the talent that Cal supposedly has in their receiving corps, it hasn't shown through consistently for them.  Part of that is the inconsistency of the quarterback and offensive line play.  Unfortunately, the receivers are also accountable for the poor showing in the pasing game.  Even so, Riley has shown this year that he's not as reliable when he's feeling constant pressure and that's something that Oregon State happens to be good at.

Senior defensive ends, Slade Norris and Victor Butler, might be the best pass rushing tandem in the Pac-10.  Norris (6.5 sacks) and Butler (4.5 sacks) are third and 11th in the Pac-10 in that category respectively.  What makes the Beavers line scary is that when they can't get to the quarterback, sophomore defensive tackle Stephen Paea has.  For the season Paea has 3.5 sacks, making the trio account for 14.5 on the season.

Like their return teams, the Beavers struggle on coverage as well.  It's not so much that they don't cover, as much as they don't have the weapons to help out.  Punter, Johnny Hekker, is averaging a pedestrian 37.8 yards per punt, ranking him 87th in Div I.  Field goal kicker, Justin Kahut, is 10 for 15 on field goals in his first season as the full-time kicker.  Needless to say, Cal has a huge advantage in terms of performance at these two positions.

Cal Bears Examiner prediction: Logic might dictate taking the team with the better record.  That team, in this case, is the one team that was able to do to USC what the Bears weren't - win.  Even with many of the key factors favoring the Beavers, their are still two things to consider when picking the winner of this contest.

Cal will be looking to avenge their toughest loss of 2007 on Saturday, making this game a measuring stick of sorts for the Bears to see if they truly are better this year over last season.  The second thing favoring the Bears is the streak.  Why mess with whatever karma is in play between these two teams?

Regardless of who wins, don't expect a high scoring affair.  These two defenses are head and shoulders against the others' offense right now.  I'll go out on a limb and back to my Bear-choosing ways and predict a good game for Bears Backers.

Cal 16 - Oregon State 10