
In my earlier articles I have written of the potential for the Iranian protests to turn into a full-scale revolution. So far what has kept the current regime in power is the military and para-military within the country which has cracked down on the opposition movement with brual force. If there is hope for the opposition in Iran it lies in a change-of-heart with the military leaders of Iran. Some of the protesters themselves must know this as they consistently yell "police support us" when the police confront them.
As more and more of the key clerics within Iran express frustration and doubt with the current regime the military must be beginning to question their loyalties. Recently a key cleric, Ayatollah Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani, openly questioned the moves of the government in Iran and expressed some support for the opposition movement.
A recent story shows the military leadership may be beginning to switch sides in the conflict in response to the continued protests. According to the Guardian some 36 officers in the Iranian military have been arrested for attempting to attend the prayer sermon by Rafsanjani. The men were planning on attending the rally in their uniforms to show solidarity with opposition movement. These arrests could be beginning of a crucial turn of events in which the military turns against the current leadership in Iran. By arresting the 36 officers the Iranian leadership may have simply provided a catalyst that causes other Iranian officers to come out in defense of their own men. The best case scenario for Iran would be a bloodless coup in which the military overthrows the current government and installs a more moderate, democratically friendly government. The worst case scenario would be a large civil war in the country between competing factions of the military.