CNN and Rasmussen polls have contradictory results for Republicans in 2010 midterms

October 23, 5:58 PMPolitical Buzz ExaminerRyan Witt

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Micheal Steele faces a contradictory numberys.  AP Photo Seth Wenig

Two important polls released today by CNN and Rasmussen reveal an apparent contradiction which could hold the key to the 2010 midterm elections.  The CNN poll is potentially disastrous for the GOP while the Rasmussen poll gives a much brighter picture for Republicans.

First let us examine the CNN poll.  CNN's poll reveals that only 36% of Americans have a favorable view of Republicans while 54% view them negatively.  The low favorability for the GOP is its lowest in over a decade.  Furthermore the numbers do not compare well with Democrats who have a favorability rating of 53% with 41% viewing them unfavorably.  Just looking at the CNN poll it would seem the Democrats would actually stand to gain seats in the 2010 election.

Rasmussen however shows why you should consult multiple polls in analyzing political parties.  Rasmussen's poll asked likely voters who they trust more on ten separate issues and the results were very positive for Republicans.  On the most important issues of the economy and the war on terror Republicans lead Democrats by a double-digit margin.  Republicans also lead by over five percentage points in the areas of education, health care, and taxes.  If you simply looked at this poll you would expect Republicans to take back both branches of Congress in 2010.

So what explains the apparent contradiction?  First the population polled differs dramatically.  The CNN poll asked "adult Americans" for their views while the Rasmussen poll asked "likely voters" in their poll.  The CNN poll therefore likely includes some "Americans" who are not going to be participating in the 2010 election.  Furthermore depending on how much you trust Rasmussen's sampling formula their poll may leave out Democratic voters who trust Democrats more on the issues.  For instance does the Rasmussen formula take into account the shrinking percentage of Americans who now call themselves Republican? The data accompanying the poll does not reveal the answer.

Another explanation for the polls conflicting results likely lies in the experiences of the past few months.  While Americans may agree with Republicans on many issues the behavior of Republicans like Rep. Joe Wilson and various town hall protesters has likely led some to view the GOP unfavorably.  After all I could agree with someone on nearly all their viewpoints yet still view them unfavorable if I did not like the way they advocate their beliefs.

These two polls also give us a preview of what can be expected in the 2010 campaigns.  Democrats will likely again focus on getting out the vote as much as possible to try and get as many "Americans" as possible to vote.  If the "likely voter" model of Rasmussen holds true on election day this will be bad news for Democrats.  Furthermore, Republicans will likely focus on the issues more in the next election while Democrats attack Republicans as obstructionists who are uncivil in their opposition to all things Democrat.