MLB: Making sense of the arbitration decisions

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December 2, 12:02 PM

by Tony DeMarco, MLB Examiner

 

So in an effort to make this page more hit-friendly, we present a little arbitration primer, and some interpretation of Monday's decisions by teams to either offer or not offer arbitration to players.

1) The fact that only 25 players received offers by Monday's deadline tells you that the nation's economic recession may be hitting the national pastime. 

You can make the case that the New York Yankees were wise in wanting to move on and get younger by not offering arbitration to any of their long list of potential free-agents, including Bobby Abreu and Andy Pettitte.  But it does raise an eyebrow when the Yankees are making what also could be interpreted as economically sensitive decisions, doesn't it?

Ditto the Dodgers, who didn't offer to Rafael Furcal and Brad Penny (but did to Manny Ramirez, Derek Lowe and Casey Blake).

2) Players who didn't receive arbitration offers can turn out to be biggest winners once they enter the free-agent market. That's because their marketablity has increased since they won't cost teams draft picks to sign them.

 The biggest benefactors here could be Adam Dunn (pictured, left), Pat Burrell, Furcal, Abreu (pictured, right), Kerry Wood, Garret Anderson, Pettitte, Edgar Renteria, Penny, Randy Johnson, Randy Wolf, Trevor Hoffman, Pedro Martinez, Bob Howry, Juan Rivera and Eric Gagne

Signing a Type A free agent (in the top 20 percent at his position over a two-year period) costs teams either a first- or second-round pick. (A signing team that finished among the worst 15 teams in the majors can't lose its first-round pick. It would lose a second-rounder).

 Teams that lose a Type A free agent get either a first- or second-round pick, plus another pick in the supplementary round between the first and second rounds. Teams that lose a Type B free agent get a supplemental-round pick.

3) Players who received arbitration offers have until Sunday to accept or reject them. If they choose the former, they are bound to their former team, at a salary to be determined later. If they choose the latter, they will become free agents, with compensatory picks attached.

Expected to be among the latter group are CC Sabathia, Mark Teixeira,  A.J. Burnett, Frankie Rodriguez, Derek Lowe, Raul Ibanez, Brian Fuentes, Ben Sheets, Orlando Hudson, Orlando Cabrera, Milton Bradley, Juan Cruz, Mark Grudzielanek, Brandon Lyon and Denys Reyes.

Among those with interesting decisions to make by Sunday are Manny Ramirez, Oliver Perez, Jon Garland, Jason Varitek and Brian Shouse.

4) Who could make a killing in next June's amateur draft by gaining a boatload of compensatory picks? The list is led by the Angels, who offered arbitration to Type As Teixeira, Rodriguez and Darren Oliver, plus Type B Garland. That could turn into seven picks if all four leave through free agency. The Brewers, Diamondbacks and Dodgers could get five extra picks each.

5) Then there is a group of players who weren't offered arbitration by their former team, but still could return to those teams, depending on what unfolds over the next few weeks. Notables here include Furcal, Jason Giambi, Jamie Moyer and Hoffman. 

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