New Jersey weather outlook for Friday, June 12, 2009

June 12, 9:01 AMNJ Weather ExaminerSteven DiMartino

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This summer is not shaping up to be one that works out well for beach lovers.  This morning, yet another cold front is slowly losing steam over the forecast area as scattered showers continue to move through the region.  

The majority of the rainfall is now off the coast as the best dynamics race towards the Canadian Maritimes this morning.  This means that once again, the cold front that had so much life over the Mississippi Valley and Ohio Valley is now dying over the Mid Atlantic.  Aweakening area of low pressure is moving towards the Albany District and will push into New England this afternoon, as a result the cold front will slowly drag through the forecast area through the day.  However, already the cold front has stalled over portions of West Virginia and Virginia with a weak wave of low pressure developing along the boundary, basically of herald of things to come for the forecast area.  

Through this weekend, the cold front will stall right over the forecast area, which will mean that moisture will converge and focus over the region, guarenteeing a good amount of cloudy conditions over the forecast area.  As weak waves of low pressure, like the one over the Hudson Valley and West Virginia this morning move along the stationary front, scattered showers will develop and move through the region.  Which will produce another hit or miss type of weekend for many.  In short, there is a chance that your location will remain dry through the entire weekend, you might also want to consider buying a lottery ticket if you are that lucky.  However, most locations will be impacted by scattered showers at times through the weekend.  This is not a case where wide spread rain develops, but just a dreary; foggy; cool; almost fall-like weekend can be expected.  Personally, this type of weather makes me feel like playing football rather than baseball.  

So is this pattern going to break?  Well, looking at the water vapor this morning back through the Pacific Ocean, I see no mechanism to change this pattern.  In fact, with the growing strength of El Nino, this type of pattern will only be reinforced through the next several weeks.  

Going forward for next week, the stationary boundary will remain over the Mid Atlantic, wavering north and south depending on individual low pressure tracks and strengths.  However, the basic overall theme that we've seen the past several weeks will continue into next week.  A threat of showers and thunderstorms can be expected each day with temperatures averaging near to below normal.  

Here is the latest seven day forecast.

TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY:

Today:  Overcast to partly cloudy with scattered showers.  Winds will be from the southwest around 10 to 20 mph.  Temperatures will rise into the mid 70's to lower 80's for highs.

Tonight:  Overcast to partly cloudy skies with scattered showers.  Winds will veer to the northwest and north around 5 to 15 mph.  Temperatures will fall into the upper 50's to mid 60's for lows. 

Saturday:  Partly cloudy to overcast with scattered showers in the afternoon.  Winds will be from the northeast around 5 to 15 mph.  Temperatures will rise into the mid to upper 70's.  

Saturday Night:  Partly cloudy to overcast skies with scattered showers.  Winds will be from the northeast around 5 to 15 mph.  Temperatures will fall into the mid 50's to lower 60's for lows.

Sunday:  Partly cloudy to overcast skies with scattered showers.  Winds will be from the northeast around 5 to 15 mph.  Temperatures will rise into the mid 70's to lower 80's for highs.

MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY:

Monday:  Scattered showers and thunderstorms.  Temperatures will range from the upper 50's to lower 60's for lows and lower to upper 70's for highs.

Tuesday:  Partly cloudy to overcast skies with widely scattered showers and drizzle.  Fog possible in the morning.  Temperatures will range from the upper 50's to lower 60's for lows and upper 70's to lower 80's for highs.

Wednesday:  Partly cloudy to overcast skies with scattered showers and a few isolated thunderstorms.  Fog possible in the morning.  Temperatures will range from the mid 50's to lower 60's for lows and mid to upper 70's for highs.

Thursday:  Partly cloudy to overcast skies with scattered showers and thunderstorms.  Fog possible in the morning.  Temperatures will range from the upper 50's to lower 60's for lows and mid to upper 70's for highs.