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Should the F-117 stealth fighter be transferred to Israel? Part One: The Problem
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Long standing US policy in the Middle East has been to assure the state of Israel that America would guarantee their military a qualitative edge compared to other regional powers- particularly relating to airpower. With the rising threat of Iran, Washington has been equipping other allies in the region with advanced armaments such as precision guided munitions and advanced warplanes. Often, these allies are not friendly to the Israelis, which causes unease in our only “Western” democratic ally in the area.
Another major concern for Israel is the likely proliferation of advance integrated air defense systems (IADS) by Iran and Syria. With the acquisition of such weapons by these states, Israel’s ability to maintain air dominance over the battlefield will be threatened. While Syria’s air defenses are largely composed of older Soviet designs, the Syrians have long attempted to purchase the latest Russian systems with some success. Syria has reportedly purchased advanced Russian air search radars and at least a modest number of the advanced Russian point defense surface to air missile system known as the Tor-M1 (or SA-15 in NATO terminology). Syria has also attempted to purchase the long range and extremely potent SA-20 (also known as the S-300) surface to air missile system (SAM).
Iran, likewise, has also attempted to purchase similar systems but on a much larger scale. These late generation SAMs- especially when operated as part of an integrated air defense system- pose a lethal threat to non-stealthy conventional aircraft which comprises not only the entire Israeli fleet, but also the bulk of the US arsenal. Indeed, both Israeli and US reports indicate that the SA-20 may already have been delivered to Iran-though the Russians deny these claims.
In addition to the SAM threat, comes the danger from the proliferation of 4th generation fighters such as the Russian MiG-29 and Su-27 series and their derivatives around the world. These fighters are equal in most respects to current generation US built fighters such the F-15 Eagle and F-16 Fighting Falcon which comprise the bulk of the US and Israeli arsenal. In fact, certain versions of these advanced Russian built fighters are superior in one or more areas to US 4th generation fighters. Only the superior skills of Israeli and American pilots would prevent potential adversaries from gaining air superiority. However, superior training can take you only so far…
Exercises have shown that the loss rate for friendly forces flying 4th generation fighters against late model Russian designs increases dramatically as the technological edge shifts in favour of a potential adversary. A few years ago, American pilots flying the F-15 Eagle air superiority fighters during exercises faced Indian pilots flying Su-30s, a derivative of the Su-27 series, and found themselves surprised and at a severe disadvantage against the powerful Russian built jets.
Upgraded models of the Su-27 are now found worldwide, operated by even the most desperately poor Third World countries- such as Angola and Ethiopia. Advanced warplanes can be found even in the arsenals of countries such as Myanmar and Bangladesh, both of whom operate the formidable MiG-29 Fulcrum. Syria and Iran already operate the MiG-29 and there are reports of the two countries attempting to acquire even more advanced and powerful Su-27 derivatives such as the Su-30- advanced versions of which are operated by India and China. Venezuela operates a full squadron of advanced Su-30 fighters.
More disturbingly, some recent reports have suggested that the Chinese have offered to sell their powerful new J-10 fighter to Iran. The J-10 is at least an equal to the US built F-16 and is probably closer in performance to the extremely potent European Typhoon fighter aircraft according to many analysts.
If these reports prove to be correct, the Iranians would for the first time, possess a warplane capable of striking at Israel directly. The ultimate irony here being that the J-10 was developed by China with considerable technical assistance from Israel using technology developed for the now defunct Lavi project (which itself was based on the US F-16 fighter). Combined with an advanced integrated air defense system, these fighters pose a serious challenge, not only for the Israelis, but also for American airpower.
The potential threat of an Iranian nuclear weapons program is another challenge faced by the Israelis. With the procurement of advanced integrated air defenses and modern fighters by Iran, Israel does not have the capability to strike with impunity against suspected nuclear sites in that country. The Israeli strike on the purported Syrian nuclear facility a couple of years ago was deceptive in its ease as the Syrian air defenses are not nearly as formidable as those of Iran. An additional factor was that the relative distances involved were quite short. Ultimately, Israeli success may have also had as much to do with Syrian ineptitude as it did with the military prowess of the IDF (Israel Defense Force).
Another concern for the Israelis is that the relative qualitative edge that their military currently enjoys compared to their largely hostile neighbours is being eroded by an unlikely source- the United States. Keen to counter a rising Iran, the United States has approved the sale of advanced precision guided weapons such as the JDAM (Joint Direct Attack Munition) to such Arab countries as Saudi Arabia. In fact some Arab countries operate equipment that is comparable or in some cases superior to aircraft operated by both Israeli forces and the United States military.
The United Arab Emirates’ Block 60 F-16E/F is a prime example of an American built warplane that is superior to any version of that aircraft operated by either the US or Israel. Additionally, the recent Saudi purchase of the Eurofighter Typhoon is yet another example of an Arab qualitative advantage in terms of equipment. Of course, in terms of training, the IDF maintains a huge qualitative edge over any Arab state, however, training can only make up for so much of a performance deficit.
Part Two continues tomorrow with a partial short term solution- depending, of course, upon your point of view.
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