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Sunspots: End of Cycle 23/24 solar minimum?
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Sunspot group 1029 is more intense than many previous ones in Cycle 24 example / solarcycle24.com
No matter what conclusions one gravitates towards regarding climate change and potential solar impacts, the data is irrefutable: the sun is slowly becoming more active, according to NASA data, as well as other monitoring organizations.
The 10.7cm radio flux spiked in late September with its highest reading in 18 months; now, and this is very significant compared to the pattern since March 2008, it has spiked again, exceeding the late September number and reaching a Cycle 24 maximum of 76.9.
This is still a very low value compared to the solar maximum flux numbers, which routinely exceed 200. However, it is an upward move from the “basement” numbers of the past 19 months which have typically run between 66 and 70.
The plot included with this report shows an gradual but definite upward slope in the radio flux during the past two months; such a consistent slope more strongly suggests (more than any other time in the past two years) that the sun is merging from its deepest solar minimum since 1913.
A well-defined sunspot group emerged on October 23, ending the 20-day blank streak and also emitting a moderate (class C) solar flare. The greater intensity of the flare is also a clue to heightened magnetism within the sunspot groups.
Given that there will no doubt be more blank days in 2009 between these solar spikes, this year may move upward from its present ranking of 6th place for lack of sunspots to perhaps 2nd or 3rd place. So the Cycle 23/24 solar minimum seems headed towards the history books as of this writing.
While confidence in this claim is not 100%, it’s definitely better than even money based on the data.
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