Hurricane & Tropical Storm Warnings as Ida approaches the northern Gulf Coast

November 8, 11:30 PMJackson Weather ExaminerJohnny Kelly

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Hurricane Ida prompts Hurricane and Tropical Storm Warnings across the northern Gulf States

The National Hurricane Center has upgraded earlier Hurricane and Tropical Storm Watches to warnings across the northern Gulf Coast as Hurricane Ida is projected to make landfall within the next 24 hours near Pensacola, Florida as a minimal and weakening category 1 hurricane.

Hurricane Warnings are in effect from Pascagoula, Mississippi eastward to Indian Pass, Florida.

A Hurricane Warning means hurricane conditions are expected within the warning area within 24 hours.

A Tropical Storm Warning are in effect from just west of Pascagoula, Mississippi to Grand Isle, Louisiana and from just east of Indian Pass, Florida to Aucilla, Florida.  A Hurricane Watch remains in effect from Grand Isle, Louisiana eastward to just west of Pascagoula, Mississippi.

A Tropical Storm Warning means tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning area within 24 hours.

(Infrared Satellite Loop Sunday evening-NOAA)

As of the latest advisory (12 am CST), Ida was located less than 340 miles south southeast of the mouth of the Mississippi River and was moving to the north northwest near 14 mph.  Ida remained a Category 2 hurricane with winds near 105 mph and higher gusts up to 125 mph.  Ida is expected to weaken during the day on Monday but should remain a hurricane as it approaches the northern Gulf Coast.

Regardless of the intensity, heavy rain, coastal flooding, and at least tropical storm force winds-greater than 39 mph are likely from southeastern Louisiana to the Florida Panhandle.

Rains will be increasing well in advance of Ida across the central and eastern Gulf Coast but will become steadier and heavier by Monday into Tuesday.  

Total storm accumulations of 3 to 5 inches with isolated maximum storm totals of 8 inches will be possible through Tuesday from the central and eastern Gulf Coast northward into the eastern portions of the Tennessee Valley and the southern Appalachians.

A dangerous storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 4 to 6 feet above ground level along the coast near and to the east of where the center makes landfall. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.

This is an ever changing situation and everyone should continue to monitor the progress of Hurricane Ida as she nears the Gulf Coast States.

(NHC 5-Day Track)

National Hurricane Center Discussion:

 Ida is forecast to continue moving northward between a mid/upper-level trough over the western Gulf Mexico and a mid/upper-level ridge over the eastern Gulf of Mexico and the northern Caribbean Sea.  

The track models appear to be in a little better agreement on a north-northwestward to northward track during the next 24-36 hours. 

Ida is forecast to traverse cooler waters...and move into a cooler airmass and increasing shear during the next 24-36 hours. 

As the cyclone approaches the northern Gulf Coast,  it will also likely begin extratropical transition.  

However, it is becoming more likely that Ida will retain its tropical characteristics through landfall.  

The intensity guidance forecasts gradual weakening and all show Ida around hurricane strength at landfall. This has required the issuance of a Hurricane Warning for a portion of the northern Gulf Coast. 

November: Tornado Awareness Month