Countdown to 2011: Owners and players posturing for public support

November 24, 11:55 AMOakland Raiders ExaminerPatrick Patterson

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The History Channel has a bizarre obsession with the idea that the world is going to end in 2012.  But the NFL is facing a potential armageddon of their own if the owners and players can't come to a new collective bargaining agreement before the 2011 league year. Instead of a mystery Planet X colliding with Earth, it will be the dispute between the owners locking out the players and jeopardizing that NFL season.

This was set in motion when the owners opted out of the previous collective bargaining agreement in 2008 only two years after ratifying the extension to stave off a potential work stoppage. Once the owners opted out of their contract with the the NFL Players Association, it meant that absent a new agreement the 2010 season will have no salary cap and there will be no deal for the 2011 season, setting the stage for a lockout by the owners to impose a new deal on the players.

When the owners opted out prior to the 2008 season, it seemed easy to dismiss this as a serious threat to Sunday afternoon NFL action. But, over a year has gone by with no significant talks between the side. As it stands now, both sides have begun their posturing as they know that a key to their side "winning" will be in the public relations arena.

However, regardless of the outcome, if there is a work stoppage both sides will end up losing and losing big.

Despite the repeated criticism of the late Gene Upshaw, he was able to work with the owners to avoid labor stoppages and presided over the union at a time when player salaries skyrocketed. In fact, much of the current fallout is because many owners felt the the last deal was too generous to players.

The players association has called for a deal to be negotiated prior to the beginning of the 2010 league year. If that is to be accomplished, it will provide the teams and the players certainty as they negotiate the next round of contracts in March. As it stands, there will be major changes in the free agency rules for 2010.  For one, teams will not be looking to consummate the long-term, high-dollar contracts that the players and agents covet against a backdrop of uncertainty as to whether or not a season will be played the following year. The owners, meanwhile, are looking to capitalize on the uncertain economic climate to generate sympathy for their side.

The good news is that the sides have started meeting. It is unlikely that they will have the deal done by March as the players are hoping. Whilst that would be advantageous to the players, it would be more advantageous to the owners to drag their feet a little bit and let the dust settle on what will undoubtedly be a low-key free-agent period in 2010 to help set the bar for negotiations.

The smart money says that the deal is done well before it would derail the cash cow that is the NFL season. Both sides can see what labor stoppages did to other sports, but right now they are posturing and playing to the cameras. They are also playing a multi-billion dollar game of chicken. Both sides will play the role and indicate an unwillingness to blink, but in the end there is far too much to lose on both sides for a deal not to be done.

Yours truly will be interviewed on Sports Radio Live with Reid Kerr at about 2:30 p.m. Pacific time. You can listen here.

This article is part of an ongoing series on the NFL's labor relations and the CBA negotations.

For more info: Check out  RaiderNews.com for the latest on the Oakland Raiders.

You can also find Patrick Patterson on Thoughts from the Dark Side.