New York 23rd CD-- is a national political earthquake in progress

November 2, 2:30 PMSF Politics ExaminerArthur Bruzzone

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Like the song goes, "something going on over there".  What's happening in the New York 23rd Congressional District may have national significance.  It's looking like a political earthquake in progress, and it has a San Francisco flavor to it.

Going into the weekend, Conservative Party candidate Doug Hoffman had a commanding lead in the special election for New York's 23rd Congressional District.  In a three way contest with Democrat Bill Owens and Republican Dede Scozzafava, Conservative Party's Hoffman led with 51% to 34% for the Democrat Owens and 13% for Republican Scozzafava. In a head to head contest with Owens, Hoffman held a 54-38 advantage.

But then the  Republican candidate, Dede Scozzafava, dropped out of the race, and endorsed the Democrat Bill Owens!!  

In San Francisco style, a Republican abandoned her own party's candidate and chose a liberal Democrat, saying it was the best choice for her district. (Recall the hundreds of San Francisco republicans who were strong early financial supporters of Democrat Mayor Gavin Newsom and his defunct run for California governor over the Republican candidate.)

Didn't make much difference.  In interviews conducted before Scozzafava announced the suspension of her campaign Conservative Party's Hoffman led Owens 49-31 with 17% going to Scozzafava.  The latest polls show the race tightening up.  So, President Obama sent Vice President Biden up to New York to help bailout  Owens. 

What we're seeing, at least in the NY 23rd CD,  is a prairie fire revolution among conservative voters despite their party registration.  A good many voters are angry and frustrated with President Obama, Congress, and the Republican Party.  And since a recent poll showed 51% of voters nationwide labeling themselves "conservative", the New York race, has deep significance for future campaigns. 

Add the continuing shift of voters into the "declined to state" category, and you have an uncertain political landscape --- where party registration could mean much less important in the future.  Candidates will become all-important, despite party label.  The Conservative Party and a host of smaller parties may grow in significance.  Like in San Francisco, it will become the accumulation of endorsements, not the party endorsement, that may decide a candidate's success.  We'll see if this is just a political tremor or a major shakeup when the results come in tomorrow from New York's 23rd CD.