2009 White Sox player review: Scott Podsednik

October 29, 2:57 PMChicago White Sox ExaminerJJ Stankevitz

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Scott Podsednik played well in '09, but that success may not carry over to 2010. (AP photo/Nam Y. Huh)

When the White Sox signed Scott Podsednik to a minor league contract April 14, it was easy to think that the signing was a joke. Podsednik? The same guy who was cut by Colorado after spring training and hadn't been an effective major leaguer since 2005?

Podsednik sure proved the doubters wrong, at least for 2009. But that's not going to stop doubters (myself included) from being pessimistic about him coming back and being a key part of the White Sox offense in 2010.

Key stats
GP: 132
PA: 587
AB: 537
Batting average: .304
OBP: .353
Slugging: .412
OPS: .764
OPS+: 97
wOBA: .338
2B: 25
3B: 6
HR: 7
BB/SO: 39/74 (0.53)
RBI: 48
SB/CS: 30/13
BABIP: .342
UZR (CF): 1.2
UZR (LF): -1.0
UZR (OF): 0.2
WAR: 1.8

The Sox really couldn't have asked for much more from Podsednik when he was called up to the majors May 1—he hit well, stayed healthy, and played surprisingly acceptable defense in center.

Offensively, Podsednik tried pretty much anything to get on base. My personal favorite was his batter's box shuffle, where he stepped up in the box as the pitcher was in his motion and tried to slap the ball the other way. While it's effectiveness was limited, you had to at least appreciate how Podsednik was always looking to change his game to get on base.

Whatever Podsednik was doing, it got the job done. His .353 OBP was 20 points above the league average and was the second-highest of his career (.379 OBP, 2003 w/Milwaukee).

Podsednik wasn't just getting on base, either. He was getting extra-base hits, too. His 38 extra-base hits (25 doubles, six triples, seven homers) were his highest total since 2004, when he had 46 with Milwaukee.

And on top of his success at the plate, Podsednik played about league-average defense in the outfield. With all that in mind, I don't think there's a single person out there who would tell you Podsednik didn't exceed his or her expectations this year.

However, for Podsednik, "exceeding expectations" meant having a WAR of 1.8. I think that perfectly puts Podsednik's "success" in perspective—if that's a good season for Podsednik, then what's a bad season?

The answer to that question is 2006 and 2007. In '06, Podsednik was largely ineffective at the plate while playing below-average defense, and the result was a -0.5 WAR. The following year, he battled injuries all year and finished with a -0.1 WAR.

Podsednik's track record is reason No. 1 why I'd be hesitant to bring him back and hand him a starting outfield job in 2010. If he's counted on to play left field, he shouldn't be counted on to be a league-average defender. His UZR/150 in left was -4.1 in 2009, and while that's an improvement over Carlos Quentin, it really shouldn't be viewed that way.

So if the White Sox put Podsednik in left, they can expect below-average defense. But what about his offense?

As a center fielder, Podsednik's offensive output wasn't bad. But when you move him to a corner position where power is expected, he suddenly loses a lot of his value. Alex Rios is in the same situation—as a center fielder, his offense (assuming he returns to career norms) is good, but as a right fielder, it's not.

Among qualified major-league left fielders, Podsednik's .338 wOBA ranked well below the median of .359 in 2009. When compared to qualified MLB center fielders, that .338 wOBA was very close to the median of .342.

But Podsednik shouldn't be playing center in 2010 if he comes back. Rios should be the team's everyday center fielder, meaning Podsednik would be forced to play left. While it would force Quentin to right (which would be good, in theory), it would mean the Sox would be left with a well below-average left fielder, both defensively and offensively.

And that's assuming Podsednik doesn't regress offensively—which the numbers seem to indicate he will. It's unlikely his BABIP will stay 21 points above his career average at .342, and if that falls back to his career average, you can expect his offensive numbers to take somewhat of a hit.

Also, Podsednik is no lock to stay healthy for a full year. I can't bring myself to see Podsednik playing another 130, let alone 150 games, in 2010—and if he does, I'd still expect him to run into a pulled muscle that nags him for most of the year.

Injuries could amplify a regression from Podsednik, but they won't cause it. Healthy or not, I see Podsednik regressing in 2010.

So I would advise the White Sox to exercise great caution in negotiating with Podsednik. I like him as a fourth outfielder who can back up the injury-prone Quentin, but as a starter, I'm not a very big fan.

I get the feeling if Podsednik brought back, though, he'll be brought back as a starter. That could be a decision that comes back to haunt the team during the season, as the Sox don't have a viable replacement outfielder in the minor leagues as of right now.