The Great Migration of the Hispanic Vote

Barack Obama’s speech on Tuesday before the League of United Latin American Citizens (LULAC) was very important for several reasons. First, it signals that Obama has rebounded from his primary perception deficit with Latino voters and has built a two-to-one advantage over John McCain. Second, and this is more important, this could signal the beginning of a working partnership between African-Americans and Hispanics in the adoption and implementation of public policy initiatives, but, as we all know, you have to win before you can govern.

 

Giving a good speech is not the wisest way to win an election, however. Obama and McCain should remember that it is not the aggregate votes of the Hispanic community that will win the White House in November; rather, it is where these voters live that is the most important statistic. Over the last 30 years people of Hispanic heritage have been moving into states that are vitally important if you want to reach 270 in the Electoral College. 

 

Most of us already know that there are large segments of the Hispanic community located in New York, Florida and California. The main question is can Obama maintain a thirty percent gap of Hispanic voters in Republican states such as Texas and Arizona on Election Day? If he can, then these swing voters can turn a close election into a rout not seen since Ronald Reagan wiped the floor with Walter Mondale in 1984.

 

We haven’t even talked about the “purple states” yet. In Colorado, there are 404,000 eligible Hispanic voters according to the Pew Hispanic Center. In 2004, President Bush narrowly defeated John Kerry by less than 100,000 votes. In 2008, Hispanics will make up over twelve percent of the eligible voting population of the state of Colorado. If Obama can maintain his momentum among the Hispanic community, especially in swing states, Colorado might move from Red to Blue. Perhaps that’s why the Democratic National Convention is going to be held in Denver for the first time since 1908…just another thing that makes you go hmmm.