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Concealed Handguns: Danger or Asset to Texas?
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Photo courtesy of Oleg Volk
Gun control organizations claim that shall-issue concealed carry laws are a menace to society. For example, in License to Kill IV: More Guns, More Crime, Violence Policy Center (VPC) cited Texas Concealed Handgun Licensee (CHL) arrest data to insinuate that CHLs were violent criminals, and that these laws are a failure. However, such reports ignore the fact that our justice system is based upon the principle of “innocent until proven guilty,” because arrests do not prove that a crime was committed. Also, the VPC report made no attempt to compare CHL arrest rates to corresponding rates for the non-CHL population.
To address these concerns, some states publish conviction reports for both CHLs and the non-CHL population, enabling a direct comparison that illustrates the relative criminality of both groups. Convictions are more accurate for the purpose of determining relative criminality, because they remove doubt surrounding arrests and report identical criminal justice system outcomes––found guilty of committing a crime––for both population groups.
Texas Department of Public Safety (DPS) began publishing conviction reports in 2002, covering a broad array of violent and property crimes committed by individuals over 21. (Earlier reports became available recently, but there are no corresponding demographic data, so conviction rates cannot be calculated.) These reports separate out conviction data for those 21 years of age and older, offering an “apples-to-apples” comparison between the two population groups, because Texans must be at least 21 years of age to obtain a concealed handgun license.
Overall ratios between CHLs and general population
The table below summarizes six complete years of conviction data. Overall, CHLs are over 9 times more law-abiding than the non-licensee population, and non-licensees are over 10 times as likely to commit a major FBI violent crime (murder, rape, robbery, aggravated assault).
Annual Conviction Non-CHL:CHL Ratios | |||||
Year | FBI Violence | Burglary (FBI) | Total FBI | All Convictions | Non-FBI Convictions |
2002 | 10.96 | 27.22 | 15.48 | 11.34 | 10.01 |
2003 | 21.27 | N/A* | 41.34 | 13.69 | 10.18 |
2004 | 13.44 | 87.07 | 23.25 | 10.25 | 7.93 |
2005 | 4.87 | 32.21 | 8.38 | 6.45 | 5.79 |
2006 | 7.00 | 38.60 | 11.51 | 7.17 | 6.08 |
2007 | 4.79 | 156.05 | 8.77 | 6.86 | 6.26 |
Average | 10.39 | 68.23 | 18.12 | 9.29 | 7.71 |
* CHLs had no burglary convictions in 2003. Removed divide-by-zero value.
While overall ratios decreased noticeably in the last 3 years, it is important to keep some things in mind.
Very small numbers of CHLs were convicted. In 2007, 37 CHLs were convicted of FBI violent crimes, compared to 9,876 non-licensees. The smaller CHL population means that very few convictions affect rates dramatically. In 2006, 2 CHLs were convicted of murder out of a population of 258,162, for a rate of 0.77 (per 100,000 population). In 2007, 7 CHLs were convicted out of 288,090, for a rate of 2.42, the highest annual number and rate to date.
Conviction rates for murder trended up for non-licensees fairly steadily, while CHL rates bounced around but also rose. The chart below shows murder conviction trends. The non-CHL group’s data points lie closer to the trend line, and the R-squared value is higher. The CHL conviction rates bounce between a low of 0.00 in 2004 to a high of 2.42 in 2007.
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In the table below, the conviction ratio of non-licensees to CHLs indicates the relative lawfulness of each group. For example, the 2002 ratio (2.95) is derived by dividing the non-CHL rate (2.63) by the CHL rate (0.89). The result shows that, using conviction rates as an indicator of relative lawfulness, non-licensees committed murder at nearly three times the rate of CHLs.
Murder Ratio, Non-licensees Versus CHLs | |||
Year | CHL Rate | Non-CHL Rate | Non:CHL Ratio |
2002 | 0.89 | 2.63 | 2.95 |
2003 | 0.42 | 3.04 | 5.12 |
2004 | 0.00 | 3.47 | N/A* |
2005 | 1.21 | 3.64 | 3.02 |
2006 | 0.77 | 3.43 | 4.42 |
2007 | 2.42 | 3.66 | 1.51 |
* CHLs had no murder convictions in 2004. Removed divide-by-zero value.
Running averages show the average non-licensee:CHL ratio for each year available. In other words, the 2003 running average is the average non-licensee:CHL ratio for years 2002 and 2003; the 2004 value averages ratios for 2002-2004, etc. The table below shows running averages for all four FBI violent crimes.
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Overall, these calculations show that murder and rape ratios are fairly flat, though the 2007 values are slightly higher than 2002 (CHL’s over time became more law-abiding). Robbery averages varied the most, with the 2007 ratio ending 3% lower than 2002, but non-licensees still committed robbery over 56 times as often. Aggravated assault ratios declined 31%, but non-licensees still committed aggravated assault over 10 times as often as CHLs.
Next: The cost of crime
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For in-depth analysis of the issues discussed here, read Howard’s book Four Hundred Years of Gun Control: Why Isn’t It Working?, which deconstructs the gun control agenda and motivates more people to support our civil right of self-defense. Autographed copies are available from the author, and an e-book version is available from the publisher.
Atlanta: Ed Stone | Austin: Howard Nemerov | Boston: Ron Bokleman | Charlotte: Paul Valone | Chicago: Don Gwinn | Cleveland: Daniel White | DC: Mike Stollenwerk | Denver: Dan Bidstrup | Grand Rapids: Skip Coryel | Los Angeles: John Longenecker | Minneapolis: John Pierce | National: David Codrea | Seattle: Dave Workman | St. Louis: Kurt Hofmann | Wisconsin: Gene German
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