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How well does the government protect us?

The previous article examined a case where the criminal justice system failed to protect the citizens of Gaffney, South Carolina, from Patrick Burris. Now let’s place that discussion into context: When it comes to fighting crime, the criminal justice system (CJS) can only do so much.

This is not necessarily a bad thing. If our legal standards were similar to many other countries, where the accused is guilty until proven innocent, more habitual criminals might remain behind bars, but at the expense of incarcerating more innocents. Please view the following discussion from a Constitutional perspective, rather than affixing blame. Even the most diligent and honorable law enforcement officer or prosecutor may be restrained by the very laws and procedures which protect Liberty.

(There’s evidence that increased government regulation of the right of self-defense corresponds with reduced Liberty, so be careful what you wish for.)

The CJS has many levels, each of which has its own requirements for promoting a case to the next level. For example, a 2004 U.S. Department of Justice survey estimates that 64.2% aggravated assault victims went to police. (Note: 2004 is the latest complete dataset available; waiting for response to inquiry for complete 2005-6 data.) This means that 642 of each 1,000 aggravated assaults resulted in a police report.

Next, the FBI calculated that 55.6% of all reported aggravated assaults were cleared by police, meaning that the suspect was arrested and charged, the suspect died before arrest, or the victim refused to cooperate after the suspect was arrested. This means that for every 1,000 aggravated assaults committed, only 357 were referred for prosecution.

To get an idea of how the court system processes arrests, we will continue with data compiled by the DOJ, citing those offenses referred to U.S. attorneys for prosecution in U.S. district courts. Of these, prosecuting attorneys declined to prosecute 30.3% of the cases.Reasons for declining cases include weak evidence and lack of resources. Some cases were referred to other authorities for prosecution, such as state-level prosecution. So for the 357 cleared by police and referred to federal prosecutors, 249 cases were prosecuted in district courts by U.S. attorneys (eliminating referred cases from this calculation). Of all cases completed, 86.9% of them resulted in conviction, or 217 of the original 1,000 aggravated assaults. But only 82.6% of the convictions resulted in sentences of incarceration: of the 1,000 attacks, only 179 resulted in prison time. The median prison sentence was 33 months: half of those convicted served less than three years of prison time.

Aggregating the time period of 1994-2004, for every 1,000 aggravated assaults, 325 attackers were referred for adjudication and 132 went to prison. Looking at it from the criminal’s viewpoint, this means that inflicting “severe or aggravated bodily injury” on another risks a 32.5% chance of being arrested and only a 13.2% chance of going to prison. In other words, attackers stand better than a 2-to-1 chance of getting away without arrest.

(Note: The above discussion assumes that each attacker gets arrested after the first crime: a condition where the criminal justice system operates most efficiently. This means that a violent criminal most likely commits multiple offenses before attracting the attention of law enforcement.)

The incarceration rate for robbery is similar: Between 1994 and 2004, for every 1,000 reported incidents, 122 robbers received prison sentences.

Despite evidentiary differences–today’s forensics technology affords investigators more confidence in determining that a person died by foul means–only 284 prison sentences were handed out for every 1,000 murders.

In 2004, Right-to-Carry (RTC) states–which grant concealed handgun licenses to all qualified citizens who apply–averaged 41.5% lower murder rates, 76.0% lower robbery rates, and 14.9% lower aggravated assault rates. Considering these facts in the light of the above CJS data, it’s reasonable that if you are a law-abiding citizen living in one of the 40 RTC states, a little insurance seems in order.

Previous:      Patrick Burris: Are 5 people dead by government?
                    The world according to Brady (Part 3)

 

Photo courtesy of Oleg Volk)

Violent crime Department of Justice and Federal Bureau of Investigation data. Excel workbook available upon request.

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For in-depth analysis of the issues discussed here, read Howard’s book Four Hundred Years of Gun Control: Why Isn’t It Working?, which deconstructs the gun control agenda and motivates more people to support our civil right of self-defense. Autographed copies are available from the author.