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The world according to Brady

June 18, 9:56 AMAustin Gun Rights ExaminerHoward Nemerov
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In a previous article, we examined how Right-to-Carry (RTC)–state laws empowering private citizens to have greater freedom to defend themselves in public–seems to provide a safety benefit for law enforcement. Officers defend their lives less often because there are fewer violent criminals committing less violent crime, and armed citizens in RTC states account for the majority of America’s justifiable homicide, further reducing the violent predator pool.
 
Each year, the Brady Campaign to Prevent Gun Violence publishes a report card, grading each state on how well they did with enacting “sensible” gun laws. Highlighting Brady’s over-arching agenda, in 2007, 10 of their 12 “top” states (11 states plus District of Columbia) are not RTC.
 
These “best” Brady states, with an average Brady score of 50.25, also had a 2007 violent crime rate averaging 512.4 incidents per 100,000 population. Brady’s 12 “worst” states, with a Brady score averaging 4.42, had an average violent crime rate of 392.2.
 
There is another dataset that sheds light on how law enforcement, violent crime, and the Brady scores all correlate to show what kind of world Brady envisions for our future.
 
Each year, the FBI publishes the number of full-time law enforcement employees by state. When collating states’ LEO rate (officers per 100,000 population) with violent crime rates and Brady grades, an interesting trend appears.
 
When sorted by Brady score, as the Brady score decreases, so does the 2007 LEO rate. At face value, this could indicate that states with lower Brady scores don’t care about public safety, proving that Brady is onto something.
 
(Orange lines are linear regressions, an analysis tool which indicates the overall trend in the dataset.)
 
 
However, as the Brady scores decrease, so do violent crime and murder rates.
 
 
 
 
When separated by RTC status, the correlations become even more obvious.
 

Right-to-Carry Versus Violent Crime and Brady Score
 
LEO Rate
Violent Crime
Murder
Brady Score
RTC
224
400.5
4.9
11.0
Non-RTC
288
524.3
6.8
48.6
% Difference
28.6
30.9
38.6
 

 
States with higher Brady scores have larger police forces, but this does not translate into a safer place to live. Whether or not this means that the Brady Campaign supports larger but less efficient, government (i.e. more taxes, less service) will be examined in the next article in this series.
References
Photo courtesy of Oleg Volk.
Violent crime data derived from U.S. Federal Bureau of Investigation.
Law enforcement data derived from FBI.
Charts from Excel spreadsheet; email request for workbook.
 
 
*************************************
For in-depth analysis of the issues surrounding gun control, read Four Hundred Years of Gun Control: Why Isn’t It Working?, which deconstructs the gun control agenda and motivates more people to support our civil right of self-defense.


 

 

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