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Rumors of ammunition ban: true or false?

For buyers of firearms ammunition, the story has been bleak lately. Newly-stocked ammunition is bought out within hours. Distributors are unable to fill retailers’ orders. At a recent Texas gun show, suppliers arrived with three semi-trailers full of ammunition, which was bought out within hours. With such persistent supply issues, rumors find fertile ground.

 

A persistent one gaining a lot of attention is the email making the cyberspace rounds. A few details change in order to make the next iteration the “real” one, but essentially the rumor is that this summer, the feds will start a punitive tax on ammunition that will price it out of the range of the average American (but not, of course, for the wealthy elites).

 

In early April, a media associate wrote this author that some of his sources had information that the federal government planned to “keep ammo out of the USA and restrict supply.” This revolved around information his source received from other sources who knew somebody in one foreign government or another, resulting from casual conversations over lunch with said government officials. As you probably note already, the chain of information custody at this point is at least 4 or 5 layers deep.

 

One highly-placed industry source familiar with the issues said this is like the old game of telephone: By the time the message gets to the end of the line, it is distorted all out of reality (think fish stories). For example, some foreign surplus military ammunition might contain bullets that the Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, Firearms and Explosives considers to be “armor piercing,” which is banned from civilian sales. Customs rejects that shipment, but over time the incident morphs into a total import ban.

 

This source also learned from manufacturers that ammunition should actually be cheaper right now because certain raw material prices, like copper, have dropped, assuming demand had remained level compared to last summer.

 

But demand has spiked since last fall. Data from the National Shooting Sports Foundation (NSSF) shows that background checks at the National Instant Check System (NICS) have remained much higher than the previous year. For example, in November 2008 there were 42% more NICS requests than for November 2007. For 2009, the increase ranges between 23% (February) and 29% (March) over the corresponding months in 2008.

A significant part of this increase is due to first-time gun buyers, a fact that has prompted Old Media outlets like Time Magazine to report on this phenomenon. Two factors motivate buyers:

 

·      Fear that the Obama administration will ban guns.

·      Fear that economic woes will cause a spike in crime.

 

There is another understandable motive based on fact rather than emotion: Fellow Examiner Dan White noted that when Toledo, Ohio laid off 75 police officers due to economic decline, gun stores began selling more guns and ammunition, and training classes are busier as well.

 

 

One ammunition manufacturer said that demand increased last fall and has remained high ever since, continuing to outstrip supply. While their factories are now on 24/7 schedules, there are no plans to build new factories at this time.

 

Larry Keane, Senior Vice President & General Counsel of the NSSF concurred that the ATF has no new, broadly-exclusive policy on imports. He also noted the sustained and unprecedented consumer demand. He noted that the heads of the 3 largest American ammunition manufacturers told him that they are running at maximum production. However, Keane noted that since February 2009, demand for ammunition increased to a whole new level across the entire country, and included all calibers.

 

As far as building new production facilities, Keane said this is not a cheap undertaking, especially when considering the economy and weak credit markets. Manufacturers must deal with the permitting process, environmental studies–ammunition contains hazardous materials like heavy metals–designing and building the facility, hiring and training staff, etc. Therefore, building a new factory based upon a relatively recent and short-term spike in demand is a very risky investment: If, for any reason, demand drops within the foreseeable future–perhaps before the new facility is even on-line–the factory will not see return on investment, placing the company in a financial condition that might lead to bankruptcy. This in turn would severely reduce supply to the point that even with lower demand, there would still not be enough ammunition for the civilian market.

 

There is a silver lining in all this. While the new-owner demand exacerbates shortages in firearms and ammunition today, it augers well for the future of the civil right self-defense. This is a demographic shift that politicians cannot ignore, since reelection is often their first priority.

 

Bottom line: Buyers help keep prices high because of concerns over what might happen in the future. As prices spiral and demand clears the shelves, people worry about getting ammunition in the future. Add a few rumors, people worry more and demand goes up even more. It may be best to stop stockpiling ammunition for now to reduce demand. Instead, spend your energy on convincing Congress that the civil right of self-defense is an idea whose time has come.

 

 

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For in-depth analysis of tools to promote the right of self-defense, read Four Hundred Years of Gun Control: Why Isn’t It Working?, which deconstructs the gun control agenda and motivates more people to support our civil right of self-defense.