How would Churchill vote in Virginia's Democratic primary for Governor on Tuesday?

June 6, 12:08 AMDC Gun Rights ExaminerMike Stollenwerk

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British Prime Minister Winston Churchill

Virginia's primary election is on Tuesday June 9th.  As the Republicans have already selected their state office candidates for the November election by convention, all voters (even Republicans) are now free to vote for state office candidates in the Democratic Party primary. 

OpenCarry.org has endorsed Brian Moran for Governor in the Democratic primary and urged all voters to crash the party on June 9th.   Notably though, the Virginia Citizens Defense League's Political Action Committee has warned that gun owners should vote in their local Republican primaries in the few ongoing Delegate races where a Republican candidate has submitted gun rights survey answers. 

But some gun owners who agree it's time to crash the party have questioned OpenCarry.org's endorsement of Brian Moran when opponent Creigh Deeds past voting record on guns is more favorable.  Let's forget for a moment that Mr. Deeds is now the champion of banning private sales of handguns at gun shows - the answer to this criticism turns on the concept of strategic voting. 

Strategic voting seeks to influence the future even if the vote itself is irrational as viewed in one time period of the voting game.  Strategic voting is what an increasing number of voters do by voting  Libertarian or Green in Presidential elections even though such candidates are sure to lose - the idea is to send a signal and influence the future. 

A vote for Deeds is still a vote against McAuliffe, yes - but so is a vote for Moran.  But a vote for Moran is also vote against Deeds' shift away from being pro-gun, and a signal to other politicians not to follow.  According to time inconsistency theory a behavioral signal committing oneself to a course of action (i.e., always voting against politicians trending anti-gun) is more credible for future periods the more it appears irrational in the short term. 

Unless gun owners voters follow through on this threat at their own short term detriment, pro-gun legislators have an incentive to continuously drift anti-gun.  And just like the teacher who rounds down final semester grades if the student's grades are trending the wrong way, so should strategic voters penalize Deeds' for becoming the Washington Post's poster child for gun control. 

According to some authors, in 1940 when Prime Minister Winston Churchill learned through radio intercepts that the Germans planned to bomb the city of Coventry, Churchill is believed to have disallowed the advanced scrambling of British fighter planes because it might tip off the Germans that the Allies had broken their codes.  Churchill's alleged behavior in this instance was strategic - more concerned about winning the war than winning any immediate battle.

Here is a Charlottesville CBS News 19 video report on the issue facing Virginia voters on Tuesday. 

Ask yourself:  How would Churchill vote on Tuesday?