I have written in the past about the possibility of incorporation of the Second Amendment, and again more recently, in light of the Supreme Court's agreement to settle the incorporation question (see links at right, below the picture). Most analysts seem to expect that SCOTUS will indeed rule that the Second Amendment is incorporated under the Fourteenth Amendment, and will thus apply to state and local governments, as well as at the federal level.
That certainly sounds good for gun rights, but is it, really? The most recent, and arguably most relevant, Supreme Court jurisprudence on the Second Amendment is, of course, the Heller decision from last June. I have mentioned before that Heller is far from the unmixed blessing that some of the more optimistic of gun owners perceive it to be, but I don't think I have really explained the reasoning that brings me to that conclusion.
A recent FOX News segment about what is involved in a D.C. resident's legal purchase of a handgun provides a useful illustration of what was "won" in Heller. NewsBusters helpfully provides a transcript--here are some of the requirements.
And I have only scratched the surface of D.C.'s gun laws. Those laws, for example, include a complete prohibition on carrying a firearm outside the home, whether concealed or openly, an expansive ban of so-called "assault weapons," etc.
There are various attempts afoot (SAF, for example, is suing for right to carry) to scrape away at the layer upon layer of infringements in D.C. on that which shall not be infringed, some of which might eventually reach the Supreme Court. As of now, though, all these draconian restrictions are considered permissible under Heller.
This provides the forcible citizen disarmament lobby with a blueprint for exactly what they can get away with, and still be ruled to be in compliance with the Supreme Court's interpretation of the Second Amendment. Even when they are defeated on a given point, they merely have to back up an inch, and say, "well, we can still do that," after which they have to be challenged all over again--with no guarantee of victory at any step of the way.
This, in turn, affords politicians and candidates with Second Amendment "cover"--they can say "I support the Second Amendment," and even mean it, at least in terms of supporting whatever SCOTUS deigns to allow it to mean--while pushing for everything short of an outright gun ban.
For those who count Heller as a "victory," I would suggest setting one's ambitions a bit higher.