Republicans and the Hispanic vote

November 11, 1:00 PMProgressive Politics ExaminerJay McDonough

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One of the larger issues facing the Republican Party, now in the process of some serious navel gazing following their defect last Tuesday, is the Hispanic vote.  Or, more specifically, the lack thereof.  

To most anyone watching the immigration debate in 2006, many Republicans were treading dangerously close to xenophobia.  In fact, watching some of the early Republican primary debates, several of the GOP candidates deliberately used incendiary rhetoric to generate campaign buzz (think Tom Tancredo and Duncan Hunter) for their lagging campaigns.  It was remarkably careless; in the early part of the decade, Hispanic voters had been increasingly attracted to Republicans for the "value positions" and voting accordingly.  Largely as a result of the Republican position and tone of their debate on immigration, Hispanic voters have turned away from the Republicans.

Not a smart strategy if the plan includes election success.  Hispanics are the largest growing minority in the U.S., now at 15% of the total population.   A recent census report predicted Hispanics will represent one third of the population by 2050.

And where Hispanics are settling is compounding the problem for Republicans.  Colorado, New Mexico, Florida and Nevada had been considered swing states.  They are also home to significant Hispanic populations.  Last Tuesday, each of the four states swung solidly to Barack Obama whereas, as recently as 2004, three of the four states voted for the re-election of George W. Bush.

"The Democrats have built what looks like a coalition they can ride for 20 or 30 years," said Simon Rosenberg, head of the pro-Democratic group NDN, which has spent millions of dollars targeting Latino voters.

Obama's winning coalition, some Democrats said, could mark a turning point in history: Republicans can no longer achieve an electoral college majority with their decades-old strategy of winning whites in the South and conservatives in the heartland. Now, Democrats have a path through the Rocky Mountains and even some states in the old Confederacy. (Link)

Republican Florida Senator Mel Martinez recently appeared on Meet the Press and talked about the problem:

Governor Jeb Bush... last week made a comment that if Republicans don't figure it out and do the math that we're going to be relegated to minority status... I think that the very divisive rhetoric of the immigration debate set a very bad tone for our brand as Republicans...The fact of the matter is that Hispanics are going to be a more and more vibrant part of the electorate, and the Republican Party had better figure out how to talk to them. We had a very dramatic shift between what President Bush was able to do with Hispanic voters, where he won 44 percent of them, and what happened to Senator McCain....but there were voices within our party, frankly, which if they continue with that kind of rhetoric, anti-Hispanic rhetoric, that so much of it was heard, we're going to be relegated to minority status.

Immigration debate will come up again, probably in the next Congress.  It will be fascinating to watch the Republicans approach the issue this time around.