President Obama warns of ‘cataclysmic hurricanes’ despite evidence to the contrary

April 30, 5:21 PMDenver Weather ExaminerTony Hake

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At a town hall meeting in Missouri Wednesday, President Barack
Obama warned of 'cataclysmic hurricanes' brought on by global
warming, a claim which has been disproven.  (AP Photo)

Citing a long disproven theory of 'cataclysmic hurricanes,' President Barack Obama pushed for action to battle manmade climate change and global warming.  During a town hall meeting prior to his primetime press conference Wednesday, the president offered a dire global weather forecast to mark his 100th day in office. 

During the town hall a student asked, “I'm a fourth grader.  I was curious, how is your administration planning to be more environmentally friendly?”

President Obama’s response started by making mention of the need for responsible environmental measures such as land and forest management.  He said, “there's nothing wrong with us cutting down some trees for timber, as long as you make sure that it's done in a sequence and is spaced properly so that the forest itself is sustained.” He continued saying, “there's a balance that can be struck, and the key principle is sustainability.”

You're now looking at huge, cataclysmic hurricanes, complete changes in weather patterns.
- President Barack Obama

When his reply moved on to climate change, he issued a dire prediction saying, “You're now looking at huge, cataclysmic hurricanes, complete changes in weather patterns.”

Former Vice President Al Gore warned of an increased danger
of hurricanes in An Inconvenient Truth.  This was one of a
number of inaccuracies in the book & movie. 
(An Inconvenient Truth)

This same claim has been made by many supporting the anthropogenic [manmade] global warming (AGW) theory.  Former Vice President Al Gore made it a key feature in his book and subsequent movie, An Inconvenient Truth.  Images of Hurricane Katrina and the devastation it caused were used to drive home the point.

However, even the most ardent supporters of the theory caution against this claim.  Dr. James Hansen of the Goddard Institute for Space Studies, one of the most vocal climate change advocates, has said, “We need to be more careful in describing the hurricane story than he is.” 

Hurricane experts similarly believe these claims are unfounded.  Chris Landsea, a meteorologist with NOAA's National Hurricane Center (NHC) in Miami has said the claims are unproven.  Landsea points to the fact that current analysis is much improved through technology such as satellites and as such comparisons to historical records on hurricane strength are not really possible. 

Most importantly, it has been proven beyond a doubt that these claims are entirely false.  Just last month researchers at Florida State University completed a comprehensive analysis showing that global hurricane activity is actually at a 30 year low.  Researchers said that, “Tropical cyclone (TC) activity worldwide has completely and utterly collapsed during the past 2 to 3 years.”  This stands in stark contrast to the president’s and former vice president’s claims that increase global temperatures and sea surface temperatures would increase hurricane activity. 

More hurricanes actually made landfall in the United States from 1900 to 1949 than during a similar 50 year period from 1956 to 2005. 

NOAA’s National Climatic Data Center has concluded that since 1966, the number of major hurricanes making landfall in the United States is actually below the long-term average. Further analysis shows that more hurricanes actually made landfall in the United States from 1900 to 1949 than during a similar 50 year period from 1956 to 2005. 

One of the world’s foremost hurricane scientists William Gray (Professor Emeritus of Atmospheric Science, Department of Atmospheric Science, Colorado State University) has studied the assertion and determined it to be false.  He said, “Although global surface temperatures have increased over the last century and over the last 30 years, there is no reliable data available to indicate increased hurricane frequency or intensity in any of the globe’s seven tropical cyclone basins.  Meteorologists who study tropical cyclones have no valid physical theory as to why hurricane frequency or intensity would necessarily be altered significantly by small amounts (< ±1oC) of global mean temperature change.”

Of course the president used the term “cataclysmic” implying that hurricanes themselves would get stronger.  This too has been disproven.  Over the latter half of the 20th century, the same period in which the globe warmed, Atlantic tropical cyclone strength decreased. 

Landsea studied the concept that tropical storm intensity would increase and concluded that records do not back up that theory.  He said, “contrary to many expectations that globally tropical cyclones may be becoming more frequent and/or more intense due to increasing concentrations of greenhouse gases, regionally the Atlantic basin has in recent decades seen a significant trend of fewer intense hurricanes and weaker cyclones overall. In addition, the maximum intensity reached in each year has shown no appreciable change.”

With his ill-advised and untrue statement, the president continued an unfortunate trend of politicians issuing dire predictions about climate change with no basis in reality.  The end result simply serves to polarize his opponents and those who do not agree with the global warming theory.  The outlandish claims turn the public off and they are quickly learning to ignore any discussion of the issue – from either side. 

• Transcript of town hall meeting (WhiteHouse.gov)