Foreign Policy and Afpak: Holbrooke unplugged

April 19, 2:46 PMForeign Policy ExaminerAimee Kligman

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Richard Holbrooke (AP Photo/Junji Kurokawa)

Richard Holbrooke is currently in Japan, raising money and pledging money for the critical aid and development needed in Pakistan to prevent chaos from descending into the country. He has one of the most difficult diplomatic jobs in the world, and that is dealing with the Afpak crisis in tandem with India and other regional players.

He admitted to Fareed Zakaria today that this is the most difficult task he has ever undertaken in his career. Falling short of calling Kosovo and the Balkans a cake walk compared to the current situation in Central Asia, Holbrooke did not sugarcoat, nor did he seem to be exaggerating what is happening in Pakistan today.

Reiterating that no solution could ever come to Afghanistan without the stabilization of Pakistan, he was extremely critical of the recent government move to cede control of the Swat Valley to the Taliban. And with good reason. The press has amply documented the fact that after taking control of the area, in exchange for 'peace', the Taliban chief spokesman in Swat renounced the laying down of arms. He warned against Pakistan giving away territory to extremists, and repeated that this ought to serve as a wake-up call to those who give in to extremist demands.

He is now fearful that because Taliban are getting close to Punjabi extremists,  that there will be more attacks in large cities like Lahore, Karachi and Islamabad. Punjab is at the core of Pakistan's economy, and Zardari did relinquish control of the province to Nawaz Shariff.  Though he didn't confirm that Zardari was losing 'Pakistan' as many fear, he did talk about the march on Islamabad a month ago, whereby Zardari had risked assassination if he did not compromise with Shariff.

As far as the duplicitous role the Pakistani army seems to be playing, Holbrooke admits that they still do not see the most imminent danger to them as coming from al-Qaeda/Taliban, but rather India. He claims that power is distributed between the army and the political arm, the government.   And yes, he is very much for aid and development especially in the Western regions of Pakistan where literacy is in the single digits, thus fostering an environment to breed terrorists. The Pakistani army needs to strengthen the frontier areas and win the propaganda war mounted by the extremists. In other words, something needs to be done to reverse that Swat deal.

He spoke of General Ashfaq Kiyani, the Pakistani Chief of the armed forces,saying that he along with Admiral Mullen have been working with him in an attempt to have him and his men focus on the real threat of the Taliban, the reinforcement of the frontier corps, as well as the supplying of modern weapons they will need to mount a counterinsurgency.

According to Holbrooke, Pakistan at the moment is the deadliest place on earth. He qualifies that statement by saying that the people who did 9/11, Mumbai, Bhutto's assassination, and the attacks on US allies are right here (Pakistan). It is paramount to the national security of the United States, and must not be allowed to fail.

He did not seem to give President Karzai high marks, though he said that the US would not interfere in the upcoming elections in the summer. He agrees with him to the extent that reaching out to some of the more benign elements is important, to at least make them understand why NATO forces are on their land.

It appears that the real war being fought is in Pakistan, and that Afghanistan is just a huge symptom of the overall illness.

Related Reading:

Afghanistan: Bye Bye Karzai?

To Holbrooke: 'With all due respect, we need no lectures on our commitment'

The Afghanistan quagmire: Bernard Kouchner gets it

Afpak: Richard Holbrooke outlines US Strategy

Pakistan in photos: the bad, the worse and the ugly