Garcia has New Orleans in his crosshairs

November 30, 12:07 AMTampa Bay Buccaneers ExaminerJ.J. Rodriguez

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QB Jeff Garcia directs the Bucs offense - AP

The Buccaneers three losses this season are by a combined 11 points, including their opening week loss to the Saints 24-20. But to Bucs signal caller Jeff Garcia, he lost much more than a game.

He lost the starting job. For the following three and a half games.

Since his return under center, Garcia has become the quarterback Coach Gruden was hoping for out of training camp. His 94.5 passer rating is 5th best in the NFL. He has completed 69.8% of his passes this season, 2nd best in the NFL, and during his seven starts, has averaged 241 yards through the air, 10th best in the NFL.

Garcia and gang will have plenty of opportunities to right their wrongs against a leaky (at best) New Orleans defense. The Saints have one of the most explosive offensive attacks in the league, as they average 29 points/gm. However, they have been equally cursed with a defense that surrenders 25 points and 346 yards per contest. The Bucs have shown an ability to move the ball between the 20's, however their red zone offense has been horrible. They must capitalize on their scoring chances against the Saints, because field goals allow New Orleans to stay in the game.

Saints QB Drew Brees has shown a knack for the big play, as he has 15 completions of 40 or more yards (most in the NFL) and is on pace to shatter the single season passing yards record. He is averaging 325 passing yards a game and has a quarterback rating of 99.9.

So it goes without saying that the Bucs survival (once again) will live and die on their ability to pressure the passer. They have done a phenomenal job defensively, especially on third downs, as they have allowed only 32% of 3rd down attempts to be converted, tied for best in the NFL.

The Saints are expecting Mr. Heisman, Reggie Bush, to return from his knee injury. Bush, as you may recall, scored the deciding touchdown in week one on a swing pass from Brees. Bush would only give Brees yet another option, as if he needs any extra help to torch defenses.

If the Bucs can improve on their offensive red zone effectiveness, I just don't think the Saints can put up enough points against one of the toughest defenses in the NFL to keep pace. The Bucs are 5-0 at home this season, and their average margin of victory at Ray Jay is nearly 13 points. In contrast, the Saints are a mere 1-4 away from the Superdome, and have allowed 147 points, or 29 per game during that span. My pick: BUCS 30, SAINTS 20

WEEK 13 SCHEDULE

Miami at St. Louis; My pick: DOLPHINS

San Francisco at Buffalo; My pick: BILLS

Indianpolis at Cleveland; My pick: COLTS

Carolina at Green Bay; My pick: PACKERS

Baltimore at Cincinnati; My pick: RAVENS

New York Giants at Washington; My pick: REDSKINS

Atlanta at San Diego; My pick: CHARGERS

Denver at New York Jets; My pick: JETS

Pittsburgh at New England; My pick: STEELERS

Kansas City at Oakland; My pick: CHIEFS

Chicago at Minnesota; My pick: VIKINGS

Monday Night

Jacksonville at Houston; My pick: TEXANS

LAST WEEK'S PICKS: 10-4...INCLUDING MY UPSET SPECIAL OF THE JETS OVER THE TITANS...