Who will survive “the big one” to win at Talladega?

April 21, 6:54 PMDetroit NASCAR ExaminerJosh Lobdell

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Without a doubt Talladega is the hardest NASCAR race to predict. At any moment someone will foul up and, depending on their track position, take out a number of cars that have a great chance to win the race. We saw an incident like this in the last Restrictor plate race when Dale Earnhardt Jr. and Brian Vickers, who were a lap down at the time, wrecked and took several of the cars that were most likely going to win the Daytona 500.

With that being said there are a few teams that traditionally run very well at this track, the biggest on the NASCAR circuit. When we add those past performance to driers who are hot right now we can make a pretty good power ranking for this race.

There is no doubt in my mind that Kyle Busch was going to win the Daytona 500. After being swept up in the previously mentioned wreck, I think Kyle will come to this race with something to prove. He won this race a year ago, but failed to reach the top ten in the fall race despite leading 20 laps. This is the ultimate risk when choosing Kyle for your fantasy rosters, he very much defines that old Ricky Bobby quote, ”Checkers or wreckers.”

Tony Stewart is a great pick for this race. He won here last fall and has a 13.3 average finish here over a career of 20 races. On top of that he has finished in the top five the last three races. Tony is a guy that should be on the roster for this race.

It surprise me a bit to learn that Kurt Busch has the best active average finish at Talladega. Over a career of 16 races Kurt finish on average in 12.5 place and has racked up six top 5’s and eleven top ten’s. Kurt is also a hot driver right now and that new Dodge engine may be the difference between another solid finish and a win.

Of course one could never go wrong by picking any one of the Hendrick cars this week. These cars are bad fast, and each of the four drivers know how to win at this track. I would advise against starting Dale Junior since there is something clearly wrong on that team, but on the other hand if they have another sub par performance changes to that team may be coming.

Mark Martin is hot, but he has a tendency to be in the middle of the big wreck a little too often for my tastes. Remember one of his two wins at this track was a no caution affair where he got out front and stayed there.

For those of you who like to make a dark horse pick I would go with Paul Menard. Menard nearly won here last fall, and Yates Racing horsepower can usually carry a driver pretty far at this track. Dale Jarrett’s final Cup win came at this track with Yates horsepower under the hood.

All things being said here is my Talladega Power rankings

1. #14 Tony Stewart
2. #18 Kyle Busch
3. #2 Kurt Busch
4. #11 Denny Hamlin
5. #24 Jeff Gordon
6. #5 Mark Martin
7. #48 Jimmie Johnson
8. #29 Kevin Harvick
9. #88 Dale Earnhardt Jr.
10. #6 David Ragan
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