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Jeb Bush, Charlie Crist and Florida's rough road to the White House
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Politics1 is listing both Jeb Bush and Charlie Crist as potential candidates for the Republican presidential nomination in 2012. Both men would face uphill battles to win the nomination. With many Americans viewing his brother as a failed president, Jeb Bush would be better off biding his time for the future. While conservatives would have a hard time supporting him in 2012, Crist is even more hampered by his running for an open Senate in 2010. While he has done very well in raising funds so far for 2010, Crist would be hard pressed to turn back around to his donors so soon after his last election.
Florida politicians have flopped when they have set their eyes on the White House. Very few politicians were able to find lasting success in the Sunshine State and even the more celebrated ones (Napoleon B. Broward and LeRoy Collins for example) suffered electoral defeats.
Personally recruited by Harry Truman to run against sitting Sen. Claude Pepper, George Smathers rose to prominence in the 1950s and even ascended into the Democratic Senate leadership, heading up the campaign committee. Smathers ran as a favorite son in the 1960 presidential primary. Helped by the fact that he was the only candidate on the ballot, Smathers won the Florida primary but the Florida delegation eventually backed Lyndon Johnson against John F. Kennedy. Smathers, who was close to both JFK and LBJ, would later help manage the Kennedy-Johnson ticket in the South.
The first Republican to become governor since Reconstruction, Claude Kirk played his political cards poorly in 1968. Throughout 1967, Kirk dropped hints that he was interested in going after the GOP presidential nomination and he did place above Ronald Reagan and George Romney in New Hampshire's primary for VP. While Kirk pulled his name out of contention, he made the mistake of underestimating Richard Nixon and backed New York Gov. Nelson Rockefeller for the nomination. Kirk was Rockefeller's only backer in the Florida delegation and conservatives did not forgive Kirk for backing the liberal New Yorker. Conservative businessman Jack Eckerd, of Eckerd's Drugs fame, would force Kirk into a runoff for the GOP gubernatorial nomination in 1970. While Kirk held on to beat Eckerd, he lost in November to Reubin Askew. In retrospect, Kirk's dabbling in national politics hastened his defeat.
Askew also had White House ambitions. Despite turning down the chance to be George McGovern's running mate, Askew would make a go at the Democratic presidential nomination in 1984. Taking a stand against abortion, the Equal Rights Amendment and arms control, Askew was simply too conservative for the Democratic electorate and he floundered badly, winning 3% in Iowa and 1% in New Hampshire. After being trounced in New Hampshire, Askew bowed out of the race. He would later contemplate running for the U.S. Senate in 1988 before pulling out since he was having problems raising money. Like Kirk, Askew's national political ambitions did little to further his reputation.
Despite his many years as governor and in the U.S. Senate, Bob Graham did not do any better when he ran for the Democratic presidential nomination in 2004. Graham had problems raising money and he raised a fraction of what John Kerry and the rest of the leading candidates pulled in. Graham bowed out in October, 2003, months before the voting began in Iowa. While Graham was mentioned to serve as Kerry's running mate, just as in 1988, 1992 and 2000, he was passed over.
Despite their home base being the fourth most populous state in the nation, Florida's politicians have failed miserably when they have run for president. Part of the problem is the Sunshine State's unique geographic and historic positions. Florida is not quite a part of the South and it is certainly not a liberal Northern state. While Jeb Bush is recognized for his last name, most Florida politicians have remained unknown outside the Sunshine State. Florida's geography also works against its politicians. Prominent politicians in one part of the state are unknown in other parts. This makes it hard for Florida politicians to stitch together political coalitions that can last more than one election cycle.
Both Jeb Bush and Charlie Crist will have a hard time winning the Republican nomination come 2012. History does not offer much solace to either of them as they contemplate running for president.
