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2009 Election results: The game-changer that wasn't
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Candidates in New York's 23rd District before a debate on local Syracuse, NY, television. (The Syracuse Post-Standard)
Republicans hoping that last night's elections would be a referendum against Barack Obama and a sign of their party's resurgence will have to settle for something less. They were victorious in two key gubernatorial races but not in the one congressional race to which they gave their heart and soul.
In Virginia, Robert McDonnell was an easy winner for governor while in a closer race, New Jersey's new governor is Chris Christie, defeating incumbent Jon Corzine who was unable to overcome the general distaste many voters hade for him.
Meanwhile, in New York's 23rd Congressional District, the Democrat, Bill Owens, emerged victorious after an election campaign that festive to say the least.
The day before the election, a reader posted this comment elsewhere in this space:
Got any new Palin pieces coming up? She endorsed the winner in tomorrow's election and she was the first conservative to do so. Maybe thats why you are so uptight in your last post. Can you say 'game changer'?
I wonder if he's saying "game changer" today. This is the kind of boxed in, partisan attitude that gets people into "V8 moments" --that is, if they're willing to admit they're having one.
There are two kinds of political spectators in America: Wonks and fans. Wonks, who know what they're talking about, can be fans --partisan-- which means they're party loyal and they know that sometimes they have to say things to support the team, even though they know what they're saying is complete BS.
Rob McDonnell greeting voters in Glen Allen, VA (Getty)
The difference between the two categories is analogous to a sports analyst and the diehard sports "homer." The homer roots for his team no matter how bad they are, no matter how poor the management is, insisting that this will be the year. He says it every year. At least in sports, the analyst tends to give a true fair and balanced breakdown that's almost never BS and is almost always useful.
Partisans are boorish and predictable and often unreasonable. Like the sports fan, they want to win the argument. They're not interested in answers or accuracy, they just think they're right and they want everyone to tell them, they're right. They want to win the argument.
We're likely to see evidence of that today as both sides try to spin yesterday's election results.
As it turns out, Sarah Palin did not endorse the winner in "tomorrow's election," now yesterday's result. Like a former Alaska governor we once knew, the candidate she endorsed, quit. He conceded the race. The winner was a Democrat.
What does that mean? Aside from the statistical curiosity that it's the first time New York's 23rd Congressional District is being represented by a Democrat, it probably doesn't mean a heck of a lot.
One thing Political Wonks and Political Fans have in common is that they behave as if everything political is important. From major elections like last year to minor ones like this year, all the way down to 140-character Twitter postings of their favorite player political figure --they think it's important.
Get a clue: It's usually not nearly as important as you think. Major elections? Sure. But as a referendum on the political future of a party or a movement or the country? Give it up. Media outlets --particularly cable outlets-- drum up excitement by generating controversy here and "what does this mean?" questions there because they spend a lot of money covering these events and they want you to watch their network. They can't get you to watch if they report this stuff honestly. They have to make it sound like the circus. How much more carnival lunacy do you need than Larry King holding roundtable analysis with Jesse Ventura, Ben Stein and James Carville? They have to ask questions that make you jump or panic… or watch. That's why they spin their coverage by asking, "Is tomorrow's election a referendum on Barack Obama's presidency?"
Jon Corzine emerges from the voting booth. (AP)
"Is the Palin tea party movement for real?"
Meh!
You want to spin what happened last night? No problem. In the three races that pundits told us would be a "referendum" --that is, "game changer" significance-- the two Republicans who won did it by appealing to independents, not the base; Sarah Palin, on the other hand, was the kiss of death in a rock-red House district that hasn't voted for a Democratic representative in nearly 120 years.
That's your quick-and-dirty lesson.
In New York's 23rd congressional district, Doug Hoffman, the Conservative party candidate who had attracted so much attention from national Republicans in this special election, conceded the race. Owens had been leading by about four points with roughly 90 percent of the precincts reporting.
This contest had been a topsy-turvy race --with a lot of outside money and outsized far right Republican figures like Sarah Palin, Dick Armey and Glenn Beck backing Hoffman against the moderate Republican, Dede Scozzafava. In the wake of all that opposition, she dropped out over the weekend (which lead the far right fringe movement to celebrate prematurely) and endorsed Bill Owens. And she still managed to pick up 5 percent of the vote last night.
And them's the facts.
Does it mean much? No. Was there wonky curiosity of any kind? Sure.
Because President Obama took the state of Virginia last year --the first time a Democrat had done so since 1964-- the off-year gubernatorial race had been heavily scrutinized for what it may mean for the White House and Democrats heading in to the 2010 midterms. In truth, it isn't likely to mean anything a year from now. Of course, the cable outlets can't tell you that. That's why they didn't just heavily scrutinize this and the other races; they overly scrutinized them, complete with nail-biting drama.
Hoffman's concession in New York is, to some extent, a stunner. The district hasn't gone Democratic in nearly 120 years, and despite gubernatorial victories in New Jersey and Virginia, Republicans have to be disappointed, especially since they built this race up as something of a referendum against, not only President Obama, but against moderates in their own party. Whoops! Here, have a V8.
If you watch Glenn Beck religiously, you're hanging on the edge of your seat thinking, "We'll get 'em this time! It's a game changer!" They say that every time.
Relax: Glenn Beck, Rush Limbaugh, Michelle Malkin and Sean Hannity will make lemonade where they have to eat crow, and their left-wing counterparts, whoever they are, will do the same thing. In fact, you didn't have to wait until today.
Last night, shortly after Hoffman conceded, Democratic mouthpieces pounced. Rep Chris Van Hollen, the chairman of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee issued this statement:
This election represents a double-blow for National Republicans and their hopes of translating this summer's "tea party" energy into victories at the ballot box. Not only did eight extreme right-wing groups spend more than $1 million to drive the moderate Republican --and the NRCC’s chosen candidate-- out of the race.Now, after losing a seat that was held by Republicans for nearly 120 years, they have to deal with an emboldened and well-funded far right-wing that refuses to tolerate moderate Republicans with differing opinions.
Mr. Van Hollen, a political wonk to be sure, demonstrates something else common between wonks and fans: In politics, people will take anything they can and spin it into something they want. Democrats are doing it in New York; Republicans are doing it in Virginia and New Jersey. A year from now, no one will remember any of it.
Sorry, no game changers.
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Time to change my game! (AP)
For the GOP, the lesson of the night may well be that the grass-roots aren't always right. And just because voters wish the Obama administration was turning things around faster doesn't necessarily mean they agree that the country is on a march to socialism. Most voters in both states --roughly 80 percent-- said the president had no bearing on their decision.
And the GOP still faces a still brewing intramural fight over how much control to surrender to the grass-roots types who forced a moderate Republican out of the New York race in favor of the more ideologically pure Hoffman.
If there's an ominous sign for the Democrats, it's not about political parties; it's about the economy, the issue voters in the two gubernatorial races say mattered most.
ABC News exit polling found that in New Jersey, 90 percent said they were worried about the economy while in Virginia, it was 85 percent. Those in Virginia who said they were "very worried" about the economy --53 percent-- went for the Republican candidate, 3-to-1. 
Voters in Ohio (AP)
Voters in Ohio (AP)
And here's a well-known secret among political wonks: There are few worse jobs in politics than being an incumbent in a bad economy. Democrats will double up on their prayers for the economy to recover in the next year. Though government statistics now proclaim the recession is over, it doesn't feel that way for most voters and if Main Street doesn't start to see a little sunshine, incumbents --that means Democrats-- will have problems in 2010. But don't assume yesterday's election results say anything about 2010. As Democratic pollster Mark Mellman put it, "These are elections that say a lot about New Jersey, Virginia and New York 23 in 2009, and nothing about the nation in 2010."
And that's precisely the point. These elections aren't trend-setting or movement-generating. They exist in a vacuum. A year ago, Barack Obama sailed into the White House. The year before that, everyone predicted that Hillary Clinton was a lock to win the Democratic nomination.
In 2009, Sarah Palin became more popular to the base in martyrdom than she was as a candidate in 2008. People like Dick Armey (who has enjoyed socialized medicine his entire public life), a few tub-thumping talk show hosts and an armada of right-wing bloggers energized the right wing tea party base of the Republican Party and they all had a nice and loud, attention-getting summer. Suddenly, the cable media wants to know with baited breath: What does the revolt of the GOP base mean? Does it represent a long-term structural change in American party politics? Will it alienate or attract the independents that Republicans need to return to power? Or will the party split into two marginalized factions?
Ah phooey.
Here's the hard news for Republicans at the moment.
Polling data from just last month --at the height of GOP rebellion in upstate New York-- shows that only 20 percent of poll respondents identified themselves as Republicans, the lowest number since 1983. Independents are starting to pull back from the strong support they had for Obama at the beginning of the administration, but they're not moving towards Republicans. The Republicans' favorability has not gone up the way that it did in 1994, the way the Democratic Party's favorability went up before 2006, 2008. So while there is some doubt and concern about and among Democrats, no one is moving towards Republicans yet, no one's embracing their policy positions, and there's little indication that anyone will and then turn around and call that the Republican Party. Where is the center of gravity in the Republican Party, especially if they're kicking out their own party members as they're running for office?
Sarah Palin, game changer? Sorry, not this time. And don't hold your breath for next year, either. Sure, the GOP is likely to pick up seats in Congress --that happens for the minority party all the time. But a game changer? There are no game changers. Voters make decisions based on what's happening in their lives today, and usually with their wallets or if facing a national crisis. Anything else is just a bunch of wonks and fans stroking themselves.
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