Winter Storm Warning for Heavy Snow

March 1, 8:51 AMBaltimore Weather ExaminerJustin Berk

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As this storm develops, the chance of moderate to heavy snow is more likely.  Central Maryland will see at least 4 inches of snow, with double or tripple that amount in many locations!

Isn't this the ultimate Catch 22?  Today is the official beginning of meteorological spring, but this storm will behave like January.  Very cold air will fill in behind it, so the snow will stick around for a while.  If you have followed my Winter Forecast (tab at the right), I went with 30 inches of snow this year.  I don't think that will happen, but still hold on to the reasons with this active winter.  Now it's our turn, and at least a chance to get back to our seasonal average.  Currently BWI has had 3.3", so a 12 incher would bring us back to near normal. The maps are in the slide show below...

Morning Set Up:

The first wave has pushed through, and the main show will not begin for us until later today. The forecast looks like it is following the Canadian Model that I showed in last night's post.  Check it out by clicking here.

Blocking High: This is this one that will prevent the storm from moving farther out off of the coast.

Arctic High: This is what will feed very cold air into the system, and keep our temperatures in the 20s for a few days following the storm.  The snow on the ground will help refrigerate the air, and should stay on the ground at least all week.  No quick melting with this one!

Monster Storm:  This is the slow moving coastal that will arrive later today and last through Monday.  The upper level energy I showed in yesterday's post will feed into this system.  The track looks perfect for a mostly or all snow event.

Mixing?  As will most strong coastals, there can always be warm air mixed in at cloud level to bring in sleet and cut down totals.  This looks like a mostly snow event, but the heaviest precipitation zone may also have the best chance for mixing to even out the totals. 

Snowfall:  I have all of the maps in the slide show.  I would love to be wrong, and have the snowfall go much higher than I am forecasting.  That is always possible as models don't always handle individual bands and local geography that well.  However, there will be a sharp transition from light/moderate snow west to heavy snow east.  Any shift in the track or snow bands can dramatically change the amounts.

Strong Winds:   In classice coastal Low fashion, the winds from the NE will be 20-40mph on Monday.  Coastal winds may range between 50-60mph.  That will blow around the snow, and drifts in the 2 foot+ range may be an issue.

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