Ocean cooling follow up with Antarctic warming AND cooling reports

January 23, 8:12 AMBaltimore Weather ExaminerJustin Berk

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Ocean heat content revised still shows cooling

My recent story generated a lot of interest and debate.   Here is final thought about that report, and contrasting warming and cooling studies about Antarctica. 

On a side note, I also posted a clip from 20/20 with John Stossel interviewing Scientists who debate global warming and the personal attacks that have faced. Find it here or at the bottom of this post.

The comments represent less than 1% of the thousands of folks who visited.  So I wanted to do a quick follow up before pushing forward.

I had only introduced the basic premise of a NASA report Correcting Global Cooling, and encourage readers to read for themselves.  I also contrasted a few other recent reports. For the premise of this forum, I try not to get too detailed.  I run into that lengthy issue when I compare computer models for any upcoming storm as well.  However, at the mention of some comments and emails, I wanted to jump ahead to the correction part of this article briefly.

The article mentions the Argo robot fleet and XBTs measure warming as too warm, and cooling as too cool.  Needless to say, the correction still shows a cooling recently.  That was attempted to be dismissed by El Nino.  The recent El Nino was no where near the strength of the 1981 event, and thus should not be enough counter a much higher proportion of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere.  Please read this quote from page 4 of the article:

“My point is just that we need to remain open-minded because it may be that it is possible for the ocean to gain heat and lose it more rapidly than we think. There may be other phenomena [similar to El Niño] operating on different time scales that can explain interdecadal increases and decreases,” says Levitus. Even if these ups and downs don’t change the long-term destination of global warming, they could reveal more detail about what kind of ride we can expect.

Antarctic Warming and Cooling Reports

Warming:

NASA just posted a new report on Antarctic Warming Trends. 

Their work was just published in January 22, 2009 (yesterday's) issue of Nature.

The net report showed the following:

a new analysis of satellite and weather station data has shown that Antarctica has warmed at a rate of about 0.12 degrees Celsius (0.22 degrees F) per decade since 1957, for a total average temperature rise of 0.5 degrees Celsius (1 degree F).

Eric J. Steig (University of Washington), David P. Schneider (National Center for Atmospheric Research), Scott D. Rutherford (Roger Williams University), Michael E. Mann (Pennsylvania State University), Josefino C. Comiso (NASA Goddard Space Flight Center), and Drew T. Shindell (NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies and Columbia University) collaborated to combine the day-to-day accuracy of weather stations with the continental coverage of satellite measurements.

 Cooling:

I have been reading and hearing many reports that parts of Antarctica have actually been getting cooler, with expanding and thickening ice.  The southern most continent should be looked as not a whole, but break down the sum of it's parts.  The World Climate Report posted about  this on September 5, 2007.  They referenced:  Chapman, W.L. and J.E. Walsh. 2007. A Synthesis of Antarctic Temperatures. Journal of Climate, 20, 4096-4117.

I just want to share the final two paragraphs.  Please read the article yourself.  I have my opinion, but here I report, you decide.

Here is the interesting twist to the story. Notice in the graph of seasonal and annual temperature trends that the coldest years occurred at or near the beginning of the record. Chapman and Walsh find “Trends computed using these analyses show considerable sensitivity to start and end dates with starting dates before 1965 producing overall warming and starting dates from 1966 to 1982 producing net cooling rates over the region.”

Incredibly, if you are interested in Antarctica temperature trends from the present back to 1982, the region has cooled. If you go from present back to 1966, the region has cooled. Like it or not, over the past four decades, and during the time of the greatest build-up of greenhouse gases, Antarctica has been cooling!