Winter Outlook Part 4: My official snow call for Baltimore

November 26, 3:11 PMBaltimore Weather ExaminerJustin Berk

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A split jet stream to start December will bring a better chance of snow.

I wanted to start my final installment of Winter outlooks with a look from Dave Toleris from wxrisk.com.  He is a brilliant long range forecaster that holds a private business forecasting for energy companies and commodities markets.  There is a lot of money traded and made or lost on these long range outlooks.  Dave T has a knack for thinking outside the box and out dueling most computer models.  His outlook can be quite technical, like Larry Cosgrove, and I will link to that at the bottom of this post.

Here is where I want to highlight the essentials. This is Dave's projected jet stream for December.  It starts off with a split flow for the first two weeks, and that would bring us the best chance of snow.  The second half of the month might see a moderating trend as the primary jet stream would lift to the Great Lakes. The rest of the December breakdown goes like this...

The temperature set up responds to the early month chance of snow.  That will set us up with below normal temperatures, here seen as much below normal.  Even though the jet stream may lift north for the end of the month, the blanket of snow and established cold air will hold us with near or below temperatures.

The overall precipitation  threat is near normal for Maryland, with above normal in the southeast thanks to that active jet stream.  This again would be the first half of the month, and and shift in the storm track could dump a lot of snow or shift the rain to a different sweet spot.

January looks to be rather tame- or at least typical.  That doesn't mean all quiet, just a shift in the storm track to bring the big storms to the central planes and Great Lakes.  This is a pattern to be concerned with, since storms in this path can bring us a better chance of ice.

February is know for some of the biggest storms along the east coast, and Dave sees this year following suit. 

The above normal precipitation pattern all along the eastern seaboard, would bring our best chance of the snowstorm a lot of kids will be waiting for. 

Again this is all subject to change, but an idea of how the overall pattern might evolve. 

My Snow Call for Baltimore:

I have studied all of the factors and outlooks I have posted here this past month.  To add my take now, would be redundant.  Looking back at my snow almanac page for Baltimore, it does not snow less now that in the past.  Rather, I just wanted to remind you that we are over due for a moderate to heavy snow winter. The snowfall for central Maryland does have a wide range in any given season.  So it's important to keep in mind the 30 year averages from 1971-2000 for these locations:
Westminster: 36"
Bel Air: 20"
BWI: 18"
Easton: 15"
Salisbury: 13"

Baltimore's total average from 1883-2006 is a little higher at 21.5".   But look again, 30 miles to Westminster, and the snow totals double.  Go near the bay, and it drops off dramatically. 

I see that chance of a at least two or three decent storms this winter.  That is all we need to get us to near the normal.  With the cold air established, little systems that would be on the fence, could bring us a few inches here and there.  Then there is the chance of ice storms ending December and January.  That change over in most storms can make a big difference in the result.  Rainfall of 1 inch would wash away and be forgotten, but a few degrees colder, and the 10 inches or so of snow would be make a potent memory. 

 This should be the first time we will be above normal since 2003.  We are due, and this year should do it for us.

The back end of Thanksgiving weekend could see a coastal storm developing.  Check out my web site for more.