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Honduras and the populist mirage
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The current unpleasantness in Honduras is a becoming a familiar pattern in Latin America; a populist president threatening the existing constitutional system. Through the flack and smoke of media and justifications there is a deeper story that needs to be brought to light; underlying all this is a fundamental social crisis. There exists a substantial disconnect between the “haves class” and the “have-nots”. In many Latin American nations the social and economic distance between the “haves” in the middle and upper classes and the “have-nots” in the lower and working classes are huge.
The past of this region has been fundamentally extractive, that is based upon the removal of resources through mining and specialty agriculture. The Spanish settlers established a social order based on oppression of an indigenous population a trend that still appears today.
In 19th century Europe this gap in hope and achievement gave rise to socialist and communist ideologies, with the final result being the tyrannies of the USSR, China under Mao, and North Korea . Latin America is flirting with this trend now.
The most prominent example in Latin America today is Venezuela led by Hugo Chavez. Once Venezuela had a functioning democracy and vibrant middle class but Chavez came along with promises of wealth redistribution to the lower classes. The first step was the vote that gave the presidency to Chavez. He soon followed it up with constitutional and economic changes that increased the power of the presidency and weakened the economic and political power of the middle and upper classes. Chavez was able to cement his power through control of the petroleum wealth and the high price for oil enabled him to project his ideological pretentions on to the rest of Latin America.
Chavez found allies in Cuba, Ecuador, Nicaragua, Bolivia and Honduras. When the oil price was up, Chavez could pretend he was a big wheel by subsidizing those who supported his “Bolivarian Socialism”. Now that the oil price is down his international grip is slipping and his nation is falling apart from inflation, disinvestment and the economic realities of “socialism.”
In Honduras it looks as if the “haves” launched a pre-emptive strike before President Zelaya (http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2009/jun/30/honduras-coup-protesters-street-violence ) pulled his constitutional coup. Were they right? I’m no expert on Honduran law but if the Supreme Court, the Congress and had low approval ratings besides, just what makes this guy legitimate? According to the existing constitution this guy only has power to the end of the year anyway, he’s a lame duck.
When will this end? Whether Zelaya, Chavez, Castro, or Peron, the populist impulse seems a recurrent face of Latin American politics. But populist impulse has only led to dictatorship and economic failure. I choose to believe the coup in Honduras is a step in the right direction; no single man is that important and the overturn of power is an essential element in democracy. Hopefully this is a positive step for Honduras.
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