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What now Iran?
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It appears that the Iranian regime has successfully suppressed the popular movement sparked by the election. While Mousavi says he won’t give in, I have serious doubts about his resolve. Popular movements are a bit like a wave, if you catch it just right, you can ride it quite far. However if you miss the wave, you’re back to paddling in the surf.
When the protests were at their height Mousavi tried to dampen the energy, and tell people to calm down. I think he, and many of his regime insider friends like Rafsanjani, were given quite a fright. What has started as a factional struggle for the Presidency, almost turned into a popular movement that could have upset the entire system.
As was said at the beginning of the campaign by knowledgeable commentators, Mousavi is NOT a reformer. He is a regime insider; a former Prime Minister who’s patron is Rafsanjani. In turn Rafsanjani is one of the wealthiest men in Iran as well as the head of the Expert’s Council, the highest government organ to the Supreme Leader, Kahmeni himself.
The real question is what will happen now? The people came into the streets in enormous numbers and found they were powerful. Individuals who had likely never been politically active before spoke out. Most will likely fade into apathy, but some, perhaps only a few thousand will not go quietly silent.
One of the more glorious as well as frightening aspects of modern technology is the ability of like minded people to get in contact with each other. The internet, emails, web pages, cell phones or Twitter all enable these people to contact each other. The sociological implications are profound.
Some people in Iran, politicized by the marches will look to find other like minded people and find them. At first they will share thoughts and dreams. Later some of them will share methods of protest and finally some will band together to act.
Ahmadinejad, Rafsanjani and company have woken a tiger. It may not go back to sleep because of a few beatings.
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