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Whose diabolically brilliant idea was it to give Russia access to Nigeria’s gas reserves?
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Nigerian president Umaru Yar'Adua and Russian
president Dmitry Medvedev at welcoming ceremony,
Abuja (AP Photo/RIA Novosti, Dmitry Astakhov,
Presidential Press Service)
Pawns don’t usually win a game of chess, as Russian strategists well know, but a gas pipeline from Nigeria well might. Russian president Dmitry Medvedev has been on a four-nation tour of Africa, eager to consolidate old business ties and spark new alliances. Egypt, which already trades extensively with the visiting nation, is expected to offer Russian firms exclusive tenders for the construction of power plants, while Angola and Namibia are to present diamond and uranium mining opportunities, in deals that leverage Russia’s expertise and growing ambition. Gazprom, the Kremlin-owned energy company, took advantage of Medvedev’s tour to pen a $2.5bn deal with Nigeria’s NNPC. The companies will partner in constructing gas pipelines, refineries and power stations, in a joint venture that has not so thoughtfully been named Nigaz. One of Gazprom’s biggest motivations for signing this contract, according to the BBC, is the prospect of building a trans-Saharan pipeline between Nigeria and Europe. Russia already has the largest natural gas reserves in the world, and it supplies about a quarter of the EU’s gas needs; this deal will allow it to flex its political muscle and bolster its firepower.
It was only this January that the Kremlin, in a price dispute with neighboring Ukraine, shut down its main European gas line for two whole weeks. Governments, such as Bulgaria’s, that were totally dependent on Russia for their gas supplies, had to close down factories and watch helplessly as their citizens came close to freezing to death. Earlier this month, in response to the EU’s inevitable rush to find other suppliers, Russia warned the confederation of the danger of being left out in the cold. In an interview with the BBC, Gazprom’s deputy chairman, Alexander Medvedev, said, “Only three countries can be suppliers of pipeline gas in the long-term - Russia, Iran and Qatar. So there is no other choice than to deal with these suppliers.” Although the Kremlin has publicly vouched for Iran’s energy capabilities in the past, it was clear which country the president’s namesake was now throwing his weight behind. “Europe should decide how to handle this situation… and if Europe doesn't need our gas, then we will find a way of selling it differently.” Indeed the Kremlin is already maneuvering to strengthen its foothold in Europe. Construction has started on one of two new pipelines which are expected to significantly increase Russian supply over the next decade. Gazprom’s Medvedev expects his country’s share of the EU market to increase to a staggering 33% by 2020. And as the European Union looks into building a pipeline of its own, Moscow hasn’t hesitated to suggest it might opt for a military solution to growing competition around its borders. According to the BBC’s Richard Galpin, President Medvedev just signed a security strategy document in May.
Gazprom’s deal with Nigeria, which boasts the world’s seventh-largest gas reserves, is expected to pave the way for a partnership with another Russian state-run company, Rosatom; the civil nuclear energy firm hopes to build nuclear power reactors in Nigeria as an alternative source of energy for the West African nation’s woeful power sector. But as other notorious power-grabbers and strategists will concede (everyone from Kim Jong-il in North Korea to Ahmadinejad in Iran), there’s a fine line between wanting civilian nuclear power and having a crazed obsession with omnipotence. The last thing Nigeria needs is an Ahmadinejad, or even a Guardian Council, but it desperately needs a leader who is more strategic with the country’s resources, who won’t treat his people as pawns when the devil, with a fire to stoke, comes a’ calling.
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