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Pandemic is here: Time to panic?

July 1, 6:07 PMNY Public Health ExaminerSteven Lazarus
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H1N1 Flu Situation Update  Map of Weekly Flu Activity Estimates (Including Novel H1N1):
Courtesy World Health Organization website

The World Health Organization has finally called Swine Flu H1N1 a Pandemic! And yesterday the Wall Street Journal reported that Argentina has declared a health emergency due to the Swine Flu, with over 26 dealths and a rapid increase in the death rate as the winter sets in.  As of now, Argentina is behind the US and Mexico, with 27,717 and 8,680 cases, and 127 and 126 deaths, respectively, due to H1N1.  And Sri Lanka has an estimated 18 Swine Flue cases!  As Swine Flu spreads through South America, and back up to the US and abroad, should we worry? 

The World Health Organization (WHO) map to the right shows, as of yesterday, that much of the world has been  stricken by Swine Flu, some countries significantly more than others.  Should New Yorkers be worried that, as the crossroads of the world, we're subjected to greater incidence and higher death rates from Swine Flu?  Well, yes and no.

Reporting to the WHO may be reliable, but insofar as timeliness is concerned it may lack, and countries may not want their public health reputation sullied by a timely reporting of a pandemic virus.  Nobody can tell how long the pandemic will last, nor how many lives will be taken as a result of H1N1.  Combine H1N1 with other viruses (remember H5N1 - the Bird Flu - from 2005?  Well, that's back in 2009 as well!) and seasonal effects to the health system (read here) and you can count on a nasty pandemic if you're not careful.  The US Centers for Disease control recommends that the elderly, immunocompromised, and young children be guarded and careful about their personal habits and interactions.  Here are some suggestions on how to prevent and care for yourself if you think you're sick with H1N1.

On the other hand, if we're smart about how we sneeze and interact with others, we should be ok.  Just remember, that the 1918 Spanish Flu killed over 500,000 in the US alone (and the CDC estimates that >500 million worldwide were infected!), the 1957 Asian Flu pandemic caused more than 70,000 US deaths, and the Hong Kong Flu pandemic of 1968 killed more than 34,000 in the US.  Granted, we have much more sophisticated medical and epidemiological science now, but viruses, like people, travel, and when they do it's incumbent upon us all to take care.

So yes, we should be careful.  Panic?  Not just yet.

For more info: 

Steps to take to avoid Swine Flu infection

World Health Organization Pandemic Alert

Timeline of Human Flu Pandemics

 

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