Are the Patriots in danger of missing the playoffs?

November 25, 3:18 AMNew England Patriots ExaminerSean Crowe

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Belichick's Patriots don't control their own destiny...

It’s amazing how much of a roller coaster this season has been.

Before Kansas City came to New England, nobody expected the Patriots to have to struggle to win the AFC East, never mind get into the playoffs.

Then Tom Brady went down, and all of a sudden we weren’t sure if the Patriots would even make the playoffs at all.

Fast forward to today. Brady’s replacement is playing MVP-level football. The 2008 Patriots are finally starting to look like the 2007 Patriots.

But the playoffs? Still not a sure thing.

The Patriots are currently tied with the Ravens and the Colts for the final two playoff spots. The Colts have the head-to-head tie-breaker, the Ravens have a better conference record.

So if the season ended today, the Patriots would miss the playoffs for the first time since the 2002 season.

Of the three teams vying for the two wild card spots, the Patriots have the second toughest remaining schedule (behind the Ravens). The Colts have, by far, the easiest of the three schedules.

In order to make the playoffs as a wild card, the Patriots would have to finish with a better record than either the Colts or the Ravens. They’re not catching the Colts unless they win out, and even then they might not catch them. So it comes down to a five-week race with the Baltimore Ravens.

Win more games than the Ravens do, you’re in.

Sure, there are other, more confusing ways of getting in. Like, for example, if the Patriots lose to Arizona and Seattle, and the Ravens lose to Pittsburgh and Jacksonville, the Patriots would make the playoffs due to a better conference record.

Or, God forbid, they finish with identical overall records and identical conference records, then something like "strength of victory" comes into play.

It’ll make things a heck of a lot easier if the Patriots just take care of business knowing that the Ravens aren’t going to beat the Redskins, Steelers, and Cowboys in consecutive weeks.

All this wild card talk doesn't mean we think that the Patriots should give up on the AFC East. Though it appears extremely unlikely, given the tie-breaker situation.

There are two scenarios in which the Patriots could win the AFC East.

Scenario 1) They finish with a better record than the Jets.

While that could happen, the Jets don’t exactly have a killer schedule.

Denver
@San Francisco
Buffalo
@Seattle
Miami

Given that the Patriots probably won’t run the table, the Jets would have to lose three of those games for the Patriots to overtake them. Do you see three losses on that schedule? Neither do I.

Scenario 2) The Jets lose to Buffalo and Miami, Patriots beat Buffalo and finish tied with the Jets.

In this scenario, the Patriots would beat the Jets due to a better division record (4-2 for the Patriots, 3-3 for the Jets).

Again, not likely.

But imagine this. The Patriots beat the Bills. The Jets lose to the Bills. Going into the last week of the season, the Pats and Jets are tied. Miami, and Chad Pennington, are the only things standing in the way of the Jets and their first division title since 2002.

Now THAT would make for some great TV.

The Patriots’ best bet to get into “the tournament” (as Bill Parcells calls it) is via the wild card. Beating the Steelers this week would be a tremendous first step towards achieving that goal. After the Steelers, with the possible exception of Arizona, there’s no reason why the Patriots can’t run the table.

But if the Colts and Ravens both run the table, and the Jets finish with the same record or better, the Patriots are out of the playoffs no matter what they do.

A year ago today, the Patriots had already clinched the AFC East.

What a difference a year makes.

Sean Crowe is the New England Patriots Examiner. You can email him at scrowe@gmail.com. Check out some of his other work on his blog.