Guinea-Bissau prepares from presidential run-off

July 3, 11:19 AMLA Africa Issues ExaminerSam Brown

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Above, Yala greets supporters in traditional garb.  Below, Sanha waits to speak at a rally (AP Photo/Fid Thompson)  

As elections press forward in Guinea-Bissau, two leaders, representing two conflicting parts of society, remain in the contest.  Kumba Yala has strong ties to the Balanta ethnic group, and thus to the Balanta-controlled military.  Manha Sanhá, like slain former president Vieira, comes from the ethnic minority and thus runs against the intrusive military establishment. 

In the 2000 elections, Yala defeated incumbent Sanhá by an intimidating 72% to 28%.  As president, however, Yala managed to mismanage the country so badly as to have aid suspended from the IMF and Western donor countries.  He was ejected from power by the military in 2003, massively unpopular with the public.  Many people believe Yala to be the main cause behind Guinea-Bissau's descent into anarchy. 

With 39.6% of the votes in Sunday's election, Malam Sanhá appears to have a solid advantage over Yala, who received only 29.4% of the votes.  However, Sanhá's victory is far from guaranteed: in the 2005 elections, Vieira came back from a 6% deficit in the original election to triumph over Sanhá by an impressive 20,000 votes.  Yala's support among the Balanta could prove decisive.

The real mystery lies in post-election events.  Yala has proven himself to be a completely incompetent ruler, and the military has shown its readiness to intervene in politics when it feels its interests are threatened.  Sanhá could easily become that threat if he tries to remove the intrusive military from politics.  Whoever is elected will have to act carefully and competently to avoid the type of chaos that has seized the country for the last decade and a half. 

The president's primary long-term objective should be the removal of the military from politics and the entrenchment of democracy.  Despite several elections since 1984 deemed free and fair by observers, the military has managed to interfere at every turn.  When the top army man was assassinated earlier this year, the military ran amok, slaughtering President Vieira, a former defense minister, and a presidential candidate.  As long as the military has this type of power, Guinea-Bissau will suffer from chronic instability.