Ida

November 9, 10:30 AMAustin Science Policy ExaminerSteven Andrew

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In the face of significant wind shear and seasonal cooling, Tropical Storm Ida has, somehow, managed to form, thread the needle between two islands, pass over the warm loop current, went to category 1 hurricane strength and then fell back to tropical storm intensity, and now poses a wind and flood threat to the US Gulf coast, from Louisiana to the Florida panhandle, beginning later this evening through Wedsnesday:

The high wind shear of 30 knots currently affecting Ida is forecast to increase to 40 knots by late afternoon, and 55 knots by midnight. With Ida now over waters near 26°C, which is barely enough to support a hurricane, and with water temperatures decreasing to 23°C near the coast, the combination of high wind shear and cold waters will act to significantly weaken Ida. However, Ida is beginning to transition to an extratropical storm, and it is often the case that during such a transition the winds will gain energy from the process, though that's looking unlikely in this case. I expect Ida's top winds will be in the 50 - 60 mph range along the coast tonight and Tuesday morning.

If you're in the path, don't take this too lightly. One of the most miserable storm weeks I ever experienced was the result of a mere Tropical Storm. It wasn't life threatening, but wind and water damage, together with no power, TV, internet, AC, or water for almost a week gets stressful very quickly.