The Discussion: Which 2008 U.S. Olympian has the best shot at making 2012?

Shawn Johnson and Nastia Liukin began comeback preparations last year after each took a hiatus from the sport to pursue the sorts of opportunities that come with Olympic glory. Bridget Sloan never really left the gym, and won the 2009 world all-around title. 

 

Samantha Peszek is a freshman at UCLA. Though an injury has delayed her NCAA debut, Peszek looked in good form in preseason workout videos and could decide to follow fellow Bruins Vanessa Zamarripa and Anna Li with an elite comeback of her own.

Chellsie Memmel surprised a lot of people by throwing good difficulty on vault, bars and beam at last weekend's Circle of Stars Classic, reinforcing her "never-count-her-out" reputation.  

 

And of course, there's Alicia Sacramone, who looked better than ever at the 2010 World Championships, despite taking a year off following the Olympics. Given her fitness level and Martha Karolyi's comments about her at the World Championships, a healthy Sacramone is likely to make the Olympic team.

 

Ergo, Sacramone notwithstanding, which 2008 U.S. Olympian has the best shot at making the 2012 women's team?

 

The question was posed to gymnastics bloggers around the world for this edition of The Discussion. Here's what they had to say:

 

Beatrice Gheorghisor (Gymnastics No Ceiling): Bridget Sloan. I had never believed in the fierceness of this gymnast before the 2010 Worlds. One month prior to that competition, she was completely out of shape. Then she came there and proved that she has the drive, the talent, the toughness. I am sure that she can fight for medals when she will be ready.

 

Jen (Full In Full Out): At this very moment…I’m going to go out on a very thin, very unstable limb which is also covered in ice and say Shawn Johnson. I want to say Nastia. I do. But at this moment, with no confirmation that she even intends to come back full-out, I simply can’t do it. Shawn has already begun putting together an upgraded beam and floor routine. We know she can be valuable on both of these events, and  while everyone always talks about the US’s bars deficit, I think we’re way less exciting on floor. Shawn can bring a big floor score. Of course, so can Bridget Sloan, but I’m just not super sure about her anymore. Basically, Shawn is the only one we know for sure has 2012 in her sights. Everyone else is still kind of “wait and see.” 

 

Rick McCharles (Gymnastics Coaching): Liukin. Bars and beam. But I'd give that only about 10% probability. 

 

Dave (Aunt Joyce's Ice Cream Stand): Nastia has the easiest shot of making the team, as she just has to put together a bar routine, be in shape, and they'll put her on the 2011 World Team. Shawn Johnson has a good chance if she can get in competitive shape and stay healthy. Chellsie Memmel has immense talent, but it is unlikely that she could ever stay healthy long enough to make substantial upgrades. Bridget Sloan squeaked onto the World Team in 2010, but it was clear that she needs to up her game if she hopes to make a contender. With only five gymnasts making the 2012 squad, she'd really need to become a true star on multiple events.  Being consistent across the board doesn't help much in three-up-three-count if you can't put up a score to challenge Russia, Romania and China.

 

Vanessa Steck (Wild/Precious): Hmm. Sac is obvious. Memmel, Liukin and Johnson are all training again, and since Johnson started training first and has shown us the most progress via videotape I'd give it to her -- but if she isn't ready than Bridget Sloan. The trouble with Bridget is that although she is a steady competitor, she is not spectacular anywhere and there are better gymnasts Marta might prefer to take. I think Pezsek is done.

 

Martina Eggeling (Gymnastics United): If Nastia keeps training seriously and really goes for it I would kind of give her the best shot. I don`t really see her there as all-arounder, but possibly on bars and beam. Shawn might also have a shot, but it will be hard to get an all-around spot, and to me she never stuck out on any special event.

Anne Phillips (Gymnastike): Chellsie Memmel. She'll sneak her way back into shape and be ready to go when no one expects it. 

 

Romila Storjohann (GymNiceTic): Okay, we have Sam Peszek, Chellsie Memmel, Shawn Johnson, Nastia Liukin and Bridget Sloan. Well, "STOI!" wrote about Chellsie's return to training and her strength on the weakest apparatus of the US team, the UB, which makes her very attractive -- if she really gets her routine back and maybe even improves it. But then, we all know her history of injuries... 

 

Nastia Liukin seems to be a bit indecisive about a comeback and you can't blame her - this girl has achieved everything (in gymnastics) she ever dreamed of. Bridget Sloan just doesn't have the class and difficulty to be on the US team again, if younger and better gymnasts (Wieber, Bross among others) fight for the spots. (Sorry, that's my opinion, maybe she proves me wrong.) And I don't think Sam Peszek will really try a comeback as an elite gymnast. 

 

BUT, since a couple of months ago, it has been relatively quiet for Shawn Johnson. Which might mean, she is training really hard for her comeback. And if so, she won't come back in order to place in the lower ranks. Shawn wants gold, Olympic (AA) gold -- the only thing she didn't get. And if she's back on the top again, it will be easy for her to join the team: She's an excellent competitor (physical and especially mental), she had almost no injuries and she's capable of really big gymnastics.

 

Blythe Lawrence (Gymnastics Examiner): Given that by landing an Amanar you give your team a 0.7 advantage, I'd say whoever can do one of those will make a very strong case for their inclusion. Which is interesting when you think about a person like McKayla Maroney, who not only does the vault but does it beautifully... But I digress. Sloan has trained an Amanar, but Shawn is the only one to landed one in competition in the past. And to boot, she's the reigning Olympic beam champion, and the silver medalist on floor. Nastia could get around the vault problem with a huge D-score on bars, basically using the same plan she had in Beijing. But Shawn seems farther along in her preparations than anyone else...so Shawn.

 

Katie (Full Twist): Not knowing yet what level Shawn Johnson is back to, I find it hard to include her in making this decision. I think it’s between Johnson and ASac. ASac is said to be training floor again which is great but Johnson is more of an all-arounder. I fear if Nastia Liukin is to make a comeback that she has left it too late. Sacramone and Johnson seem to have so much determination.

 

Brigid McCarthy (The Couch Gymnast): Oh dear, I don't know! Making me predict the most unpredictable sport years ahead of time -- cruelty! Okay, in terms of those actually reported to be training I am going to say Liukin is most needed if she can whip her beam and particularly her bars back into shape. I believe in Johnson's comeback attempt, and she may more likely be ready than Liukin, who is still heavily committed to outside interests. I have this ominious feeling that Brigid Sloan is not going to get past the injury plague. However, knowing the comeback queen that is Memmel, she'll probably spring out of nowehere in August 2012, win Nationals and earn herself a berth! Seriously, however, I don't really know if any of them will at this point.

 

Bronwyn Sanders (STOI!): It’s still a little early in the game to predict. Besides a few scrappy cell phone video updates, it’s hard to detect Nastia’s commitment, progress, and exactly how serious about this comeback she is.

 

Though working through injury for much of last year, Sloan was entirely unimpressive to me. I don’t know if she can bounce back and regain World Champion form.

 

I was surprised to hear that Memmel has resumed training, and the fervid pace at which she’s already getting back into competition. Though few are as fierce, and tough as nails as Chellsie, it’s hard for me to take her comeback seriously due to her laundry list of injuries and bad timing. I just fear for the poor girls’ post-gymnastics body. I could see her possibly filling a bars spot for the U.S. in Tokyo, but London seems like a long shot. Maybe she can fill the bars slot with no-Nastia. They won’t take the both of them.

 

If Johnson’s upgrades and progress are more than an urban gym-myth (double layout + punch front + stag a la Atler?), she might have the best shot at London. She seems to be pacing her comeback perfectly.

 

Clara (STOI!): I'm going to be very controversial here. There won't be as many veterans on the US 2012 team as everyone seems to think, even though the talent pool of new seniors this quad is not exactly 2001-4 standard. Maybe just two. Virtually all of the oldies, and I include Zamarripa and Li in this, are dealing with some kind of chronic injury. Marta does not have a good record for pacing athletes in that situation. Look at how little protection Chellsie and Alicia got in the run up to Beijing. Given Marta's mentality and the fact that there will only be 5 on the team in 2012, I just don't see her being willing to give the veterans the freedom to drop a couple of events and not peak at the selection competitions that they're likely to need. 

 

Chellsie has a poor record for knowing when to protect her body, Shawn's had major surgery and is attempting to pull off a comeback with a totally new body, and top NCAA athletes historically often can do the skills needed for elite but struggle to stay healthy while doing them. I'm also wondering whether expecting Nastia to have the motivation is realistic.

 

Unlike Bronwyn, I think Nastia and Chellsie could both be taken, especially considering how many excellent vaulters the US have at the moment, but only if both have at least 1 other event.

 

So as I have to pick now, Sacramone, but with an injury between now and London. If Nastia wants it, then her. Just because she has an easier task than the rest in terms of her strengths being what the team needs. But I also think she's the one least likely to come back for anything other than a realistic shot at multiple golds.

 

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