What NOT to expect from State of the Union message

An estimated 40 million Americans, including Washingtonians from Pend Oreille to Pacific Beach, will be viewing Tuesday evening when President Barack Obama delivers his third State of the Union address to Congress, and it is virtually guaranteed he will not mention gun rights or gun control, as that will open the Pandora’s Box of Operation Fast and Furious.

As Obama tries to make a case for his administration’s handling of the economy – an economy that has put millions of gun owners, along with a lot of other citizens, out of work or at least left them worse off than they were three years ago – he may once again try to blame Bush for the nation's economic woes. He will want to “tax the rich” so that they pay their “fair share” and redistribute their wealth to people who pay no taxes at all because they don't earn enough.

But he will avoid Fast and Furious like the plague on his presidency that it is. Here’s what one observer predicted to the Associated Press about Tuesday evening’s speech:

"The president must run on his record, and that means talking candidly and persuasively with the country about the very distinctive nature of the challenges the American economy faced when he took office and what has gone right for the past three years, and what needs to be done in addition."—Bill Galston, domestic policy advisor for Bill Clinton, now with the Brookings Institution

With all due respect to Mr. Galston, the president shouldn’t dare run on his record. Unemployment is up and stagnant, though it is down from the 10-percent high of a few months ago. The price of gasoline is about double what it was when he took office, and his energy policy has put this nation at a distinct disadvantage. Your groceries cost more because it costs more to get them from distribution centers to the stores. Here's a tidbit from CNSNews:

When Obama entered the White House in January 2009, the city average price for one gallon of regular unleaded gasoline was $1.79, according to the BLS. (The figures are in nominal dollars: not adjusted for inflation.) Five months later in June, unleaded gasoline was $2.26 per gallon, an increase of 26 percent. By December 2011, the price of regular unleaded gas per gallon was $3.28, an 83 percent increase from January 2009.--CNSNews

This column has said before that the American economy revolves around the price of a gallon of gasoline, and while that seems simplistic to six-figure economists and media talking heads, it is right down to earth for working families who find it tougher to stretch a dollar when it comes to feeding their families and affording transportation to and from the jobs…if they have jobs. These are the people who "cling to their guns or religion," a point Mr. Obama disdained infamously during a San Francisco fund-raiser in 2008, with just a hint of racism thrown in.

The U.S. city average retail price for one pound of 100 percent ground beef was $2.36 in January 2009. As of December 2011, that price had risen to $2.92—a 23.7 percent increase and a new peak. (Ground beef prices have risen every month since November 2009 – 26 months of price increases.)

Whole wheat bread prices from January 2009 to December 2011 increased about five percent (5.02 percent) from $1.97 to $2.07. (The inflation rate in December 2011 was 3.0 percent.)--CNSNews

But let us focus on the issue from which Obama and his administration would run like rabbits if they thought they might get away with it (and, indeed, some of them probably believe they can).

Congressman Darrell Issa was on Fox & Friends Tuesday morning, discussing the announcement by federal prosecutor Patrick Cunningham of Phoenix that he will invoke his Fifth Amendment right to remain silent when he is questioned about what he knew and when he knew it regarding Fast and Furious. The president is not likely to mention the irony of that, as this column did. If, as Attorney General Eric Holder has intimated, nobody has anything to hide about the scandalous gun trafficking sting operation, you’re not going to see Obama try to weasel word his way around that, even if he has a dozen teleprompters running.

"Almost by definition it's going to be at least as much a political speech as a governing speech.”—Bill Galston, Brookings Institution.

Delivering tonight’s Republican response to the president’s speech, which will be more campaign rhetoric than an actual explanation of the state of this nation, will be Indiana Gov. Mitch Daniels. If he and his GOP speech writers are savvy, they will insert a few remarks about Fast and Furious, because it will be one way to verbally demonstrate that the Obama administration is not half as smart or intellectually honest as Obama’s cheerleaders in the press would have the nation believe.

Daniels and the GOP ought to remind viewers that the one industry showing remarkable growth under Obama's reign is the one that the president would never dare take credit for, even if he deserves it:

The $4 billion firearms and ammunition industry stands apart from other industries that are struggling in the slow economy. Demand for guns has continued at a robust pace since late 2008. NSSF estimates the industry is responsible for approximately 180,000 jobs and has impact on the U.S. economy of $28 billion.—Bill Brassard, National Shooting Sports Foundation

In Las Vegas last week for the annual Shooting, Hunting and Outdoor Trade (SHOT) Show, this column joined other firearms journalists in observing a phenomenally vibrant industry trade event that had, as this column noted, political undercurrents focused on the 2012 presidential election.

According to NSSF, a record crowd of more than 61,000 retailers, wholesalers, buyers and media flowed through the doors of the Sands Convention Center. Again, thanks in large part to public concerns about the direction this country could take under a second Obama term, the outlook for firearms sales is very good.

Many in the industry believe, however, that Americans’ interest in owning firearms will continue to grow in 2012, fueling their unabashed optimism about the year ahead. Many also said they would not be surprised to see supporters of the Second Amendment react as they did before the last presidential election when their fears over candidates who were unfriendly toward firearms ignited a sales surge.—Bill Brassard, NSSF

The White House has announced that the President will travel to Arizona on Wednesday, landing in Phoenix tomorrow afternoon for a three-hour stint during which he will be speaking at the Intel Ocotillo Campus.

Phoenix is where Fast and Furious was launched, and where Mr. Cunningham, the assistant U.S. Attorney in charge of that office’s criminal division who is now speaking through his attorney to Congressman Issa’s House Committee on Oversight and Government Reform, still hangs his hat. It is home to the Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, Firearms and Explosives’ field office that oversaw Fast and Furious as some 2,000-2,500 guns were allowed – nay, encouraged – to be walked into the criminal pipeline to Mexico, where they have been recovered in connection with scores of murders and other crimes.

Will the President try to sell his State of the Union message to the residents of Phoenix? Will someone in the Phoenix press corps have the “audacity of hope” to ask him about Fast and Furious, the Fifth Amendment and transparency in government, and expect a straight answer?

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