Photo courtesy of Oleg Volk
Gun control organizations claim that shall-issue concealed carry laws are a menace to society. For example, in License to Kill IV: More Guns, More Crime, Violence Policy Center (VPC) cited Texas Concealed Handgun Licensee (CHL) arrest data to insinuate that CHLs were violent criminals, and that these laws are a failure. However, such reports ignore the fact that our justice system is based upon the principle of “innocent until proven guilty,” because arrests do not prove that a crime was committed. Also, the VPC report made no attempt to compare CHL arrest rates to corresponding rates for the non-CHL population.
To address these concerns, some states publish conviction reports for both CHLs and the non-CHL population, enabling a direct comparison that illustrates the relative criminality of both groups. Convictions are more accurate for the purpose of determining relative criminality, because they remove doubt surrounding arrests and report identical criminal justice system outcomes––found guilty of committing a crime––for both population groups.
Texas Department of Public Safety (DPS) began publishing conviction reports in 2002, covering a broad array of violent and property crimes committed by individuals over 21. (Earlier reports became available recently, but there are no corresponding demographic data, so conviction rates cannot be calculated.) These reports separate out conviction data for those 21 years of age and older, offering an “apples-to-apples” comparison between the two population groups, because Texans must be at least 21 years of age to obtain a concealed handgun license.
Overall ratios between CHLs and general population
The table below summarizes six complete years of conviction data. Overall, CHLs are over 9 times more law-abiding than the non-licensee population, and non-licensees are over 10 times as likely to commit a major FBI violent crime (murder, rape, robbery, aggravated assault).
|
Annual Conviction Non-CHL:CHL Ratios
|
|||||
|
Year
|
FBI
Violence |
Burglary
(FBI) |
Total
FBI |
All
Convictions |
Non-FBI Convictions
|
|
2002
|
10.96
|
27.22
|
15.48
|
11.34
|
10.01
|
|
2003
|
21.27
|
N/A*
|
41.34
|
13.69
|
10.18
|
|
2004
|
13.44
|
87.07
|
23.25
|
10.25
|
7.93
|
|
2005
|
4.87
|
32.21
|
8.38
|
6.45
|
5.79
|
|
2006
|
7.00
|
38.60
|
11.51
|
7.17
|
6.08
|
|
2007
|
4.79
|
156.05
|
8.77
|
6.86
|
6.26
|
|
Average
|
10.39
|
68.23
|
18.12
|
9.29
|
7.71
|
* CHLs had no burglary convictions in 2003. Removed divide-by-zero value.
While overall ratios decreased noticeably in the last 3 years, it is important to keep some things in mind.
Very small numbers of CHLs were convicted. In 2007, 37 CHLs were convicted of FBI violent crimes, compared to 9,876 non-licensees. The smaller CHL population means that very few convictions affect rates dramatically. In 2006, 2 CHLs were convicted of murder out of a population of 258,162, for a rate of 0.77 (per 100,000 population). In 2007, 7 CHLs were convicted out of 288,090, for a rate of 2.42, the highest annual number and rate to date.
Conviction rates for murder trended up for non-licensees fairly steadily, while CHL rates bounced around but also rose. The chart below shows murder conviction trends. The non-CHL group’s data points lie closer to the trend line, and the R-squared value is higher. The CHL conviction rates bounce between a low of 0.00 in 2004 to a high of 2.42 in 2007.
.jpg)
In the table below, the conviction ratio of non-licensees to CHLs indicates the relative lawfulness of each group. For example, the 2002 ratio (2.95) is derived by dividing the non-CHL rate (2.63) by the CHL rate (0.89). The result shows that, using conviction rates as an indicator of relative lawfulness, non-licensees committed murder at nearly three times the rate of CHLs.
|
Murder Ratio, Non-licensees Versus CHLs
|
|||
|
Year
|
CHL Rate
|
Non-CHL Rate
|
Non:CHL Ratio
|
|
2002
|
0.89
|
2.63
|
2.95
|
|
2003
|
0.42
|
3.04
|
5.12
|
|
2004
|
0.00
|
3.47
|
N/A*
|
|
2005
|
1.21
|
3.64
|
3.02
|
|
2006
|
0.77
|
3.43
|
4.42
|
|
2007
|
2.42
|
3.66
|
1.51
|
* CHLs had no murder convictions in 2004. Removed divide-by-zero value.
Running averages show the average non-licensee:CHL ratio for each year available. In other words, the 2003 running average is the average non-licensee:CHL ratio for years 2002 and 2003; the 2004 value averages ratios for 2002-2004, etc. The table below shows running averages for all four FBI violent crimes.
.jpg)
Overall, these calculations show that murder and rape ratios are fairly flat, though the 2007 values are slightly higher than 2002 (CHL’s over time became more law-abiding). Robbery averages varied the most, with the 2007 ratio ending 3% lower than 2002, but non-licensees still committed robbery over 56 times as often. Aggravated assault ratios declined 31%, but non-licensees still committed aggravated assault over 10 times as often as CHLs.
Next: The cost of crime
****************************************
For in-depth analysis of the issues discussed here, read Howard’s book Four Hundred Years of Gun Control: Why Isn’t It Working?, which deconstructs the gun control agenda and motivates more people to support our civil right of self-defense. Autographed copies are available from the author, and an e-book version is available from the publisher.
Atlanta: Ed Stone | Austin: Howard Nemerov | Boston: Ron Bokleman | Charlotte: Paul Valone | Chicago: Don Gwinn | Cleveland: Daniel White | DC: Mike Stollenwerk | Denver: Dan Bidstrup | Grand Rapids: Skip Coryel | Los Angeles: John Longenecker | Minneapolis: John Pierce | National: David Codrea | Seattle: Dave Workman | St. Louis: Kurt Hofmann | Wisconsin: Gene German
Comments
Need to add comparison to LEO...Detroit has had a number of convictions (bribery, etc) out of their force of 5000.
All very interesting, but what if the numbers had gone the other way? Would the fact that CHL-holders were -more- violent affect -my- innate right to be armed for my own defense? Not just 'no'; HELL no!
Analyses like this come very close to ratifying the 'line' of the gun-banners: 'if guns are too dangerous we should ban them'. Nuts to that.
Anon: "Need to add comparison to LEO...Detroit has had a number of convictions (bribery, etc) out of their force of 5000. "
Sadly the conviction rates for "only ones" are much lower then they should be. I'd love to see it, but don't think it's out there.
In some ways, this study tells us nothing. Using only the "murder" statistic, this says nothing about the circumstance of the action. If the event took place in the actors home, a CHL doesn't enter in the mix. Likewise, if a CHL holder goes to a spouses place of employment and kills him/her, a CHL really doesn't enter in. The issue the "antis" raise is that it's not safe to let people have guns because they are poorly trained, or fly off the handle. A CHL is not a factor in any premeditated event. holders human? Of course! Will some of them loose their cool at some point? Yes. Will some of them commit heneous crimes? In any large sample over a long enough time, the answer is of course. It simply doesn't prove anything.
There are many reasons I publish these annual reports.
East: It ONLY matters that a CHL committed a crime. They averred that they are law-abiding enough to be responsible to carry a gun in public. If they commit a crime, they have broken their word. Criminals break their social contract at will, and should have consequences.
Frank: I don’t engage in “what if.” I report facts. “What if” is the realm of anti-rights proponents: “What if an innocent gets shot” is the way they fight concealed carry.
Nevertheless, these data show that CHLs, on the whole, are far more law-abiding than the general public. The antis continue to attack right-to-carry. We are winning the battle because we have the truth on our side. It isn’t bleak like they wish, and it isn’t perfect like we wish. Every study I’ve done shows that licensees are far more law-abiding.
Reality shows that RTC works. These conviction reports are useful in restoring the Second Amendment.
The choice is ours
While the world is arming itself our elected officials seem to want us to be defenseless against those who would like to see the united States become a third world nation! If history has taught us anything it is that freedom always comes with a heavy price tag, too many people have died for the freedom we enjoy in America, we can’t let it slip through our fingers now when the world is at a critical juncture we must fight to keep our constitutional rights in tact the way our forefathers meant them to be. The men who crafted and created the constitution knew first hand how easy it is to loose your rights as a human being if you are not willing to fight for the right to be free! ALL THAT IS NEEDED FOR EVIL TO PREVAIL IS FOR GOOD MEN TO DO NOTHING!!!
I’M SURE NONE OF US HAVE FORGOTTEN 9 11, THOSE PEOPLE ARE STILL OUT THERE AND WILL ALWAYS BE. Guns are not the problem, people are.
Bad people will always have guns and if we allow the government to take away our right
right to carry and protect ourselves and our loved ones we will open the door to a horror none of us want to experience. The wolves and the buzzards of the world will swoop down upon us without mercy not to mention the criminal element that already lives in America just waiting for us to become defenseless.
The only way to remain free is to WALK SOFTLY AND CARRY A BIG STICK!
This I know for a fact, THOSE WHO FORGET HISTORY ARE DOOMED TO REPEAT IT!!! THE HITLERS OF THE WORLD WILL ALWAYS BE WITH US, WE CAN NEVER LET OUR GUARD DOWN NOT EVEN FOR A MINUTE. This is a time for all of us who cherish freedom to unite for the protection of our rights, our freedom, and our very way of life.
There is a fear in our great nation – one that is not without basis. Americans coast to coast are buying guns and ammunition at a record pace, because they fear that their Right to Keep and Bear Arms is in danger. And they are correct. This fear has caused nationwide shortages of guns and ammunition.
I agree with adding in the police. What you will see is that CHL holders are lower than the police and the population. Once that link is made then the VPC and their cronies will run away from the argument.
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