Early fight analysis: Manny Pacquiao vs. Miguel Cotto

July 20, 11:18 PMHouston Boxing ExaminerMarv Dumon

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The fight that most boxing fans anticipated is official.  Top Rank promoter Bob Arum announced on Monday that IBO and Ring Magazine junior welterweight champion, and current top pound-for-pound fighter, Filipino Manny Pacquiao will face off against WBO welterweight champion Miguel Cotto of Puerto Rico.  The two will meet on November 14 at the MGM Grand in Las Vegas at an agreed 145 lb. maximum weight. 

Pay-per-view sales on the fight should approach 1 million buys for the U.S. market.

Pacquiao vs. Cotto is a legitimate mega-fight, and should be one of the most anticipated clashes in recent years for several reasons. 

First, the boxing community will be able to witness if Manny Pacquiao can continue to thrive and succeed in his heretofore impossible journey.  Starting out at a mere 106 lb., the "Pacman" is vying for Cotto's welterweight belt.  For Manny, that represents an astonishing 7th title in his 7th weight class.  Among the all-time greats who have ever laced on the boxing gloves, no one in the entire history of the sport has ever attained such a feat (Oscar de la Hoya is the only other fighter to win 6 titles in 6 weight classes).  Not Muhammad Ali.  Not Rocky Marciano.  Not Roberto Duran.  Not Jack Dempsey.

Secondly, Miguel Cotto represents a formidable challenge for the former flyweight Pacquiao.  Cotto is a legitimate welterweight, and may weigh in as big as 160 lbs. come fight night on November 14.  And this is a weight range that he is most comfortable in.  The Puerto Rican has previously defeated highly respected fighters in Shane Mosley, Joshua Clottey, Zab Judah, Carlos Quintana, and Ricardo Torres.  Carlos Quintana is the only boxer to have defeated 6 foot 1 inch Paul Williams, who possesses an 82" reach.  In short, Cotto has defeated boxing stars in his climb to the top.

The third reason why this is a mega-event?  Both Pacquiao and Cotto are heroes in their respective homelands.  Cotto is regarded as one of Puerto Rico's best boxers, following in the lofty standards set forth by the great Felix Trinidad, and his fan base is augmented by general boxing fans that like his brawling and attack style.  Pacquiao on the other hand has elevated himself to national hero status at home, but also as an international superstar.  His impossible journey, starting out as a homeless boxing aspirant, continues.

Tale of the Tape:

Manny Pacquiao (49 wins, 3 losses, 2 draws)

Status:  IBO and Ring Jr. Welterweight Champ

P4P Ranking:  #1

Age:  30

Hometown:  General Santos City, Philippines

Height:  5 feet 6.5 inches

Weigh-in Weight:  141 - 143 lb.

Likely Fight Night Weight:  148 - 150 lb.

Reach:  67 inches

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              Artwork - Richard T. Slone

Miguel Cotto (34 wins, 1 loss)

Status:  WBO Welterweight Champ

P4P Ranking:  top 10

Age:  28

Hometown:  Caguas, Puerto Rico

Height:  5 feet 7 inches

Weigh-in Weight:  145 lb.

Likely Fight Night Weight:  156 - 159 lb.

Reach:  67 inches

We find three keys to victory for each fighter.

Manny Pacquiao's Keys to Victory

1.  Cotto's recent tough fights with Mexican Antonio Margarito and Ghana native Joshua Clottey reveals that he does not like to fight back-pedaling.  When he is forced backwards, Cotto is susceptible to jabs and hooks, and this vulnerability could be exploted by the quicker Pacquiao.  Manny can force Cotto to retreat when the Filipino throws his lightning fast combinations at a staggered Cotto.

2.  Pacquiao undoubtedly possesses a speed advantage over Cotto.  Manny has fought a faster fighter in Juan Manuel Marquez before, and the Filipino's ability to telegraph Cotto's moves can simultaneously - in real time - guide Pacman's offensive bombardment.

3.  Manny's ability to block Cotto's power punches upstairs and to the body will be a critical success factor in this fight.  Cotto has fought and defeated bigger fighters than Manny, and packs more power, especially to the body.  An unpredictable in-and-out movement as well as effective blocking can either eventually wear down Cotto or allow Manny enough time to land a flush knockout punch.

Miguel Cotto's Keys to Victory

1. Pacquiao is susceptible to getting hit with combinations when he is forced to move backwards.  Ricky Hatton's ability to parry with, and roughhouse, Pacquiao in the 2nd round of their fight should be cause for a lot of worry by Pacquiao's fans.  If you look closely in that fight, a larger and more powerful boxer like Cotto would have done significantly more damage to Manny if he was in the ring instead.

2.  Cotto's power will have to be leveraged by utilizing the entire arsenal of punches, from right jabs and hooks, to uppercuts.  The variety of angles is necessary to make Cotto less predictable for Pacquiao, making a surprise body blow or hook much more effective.  That sneaky punch could do just enough to stagger the Filipino for a few seconds that gives Cotto enough time to throw combinations and / or trap the Pacman.  Cotto's power has worked on bigger fighters before, landing them on former flyweight Pacquiao could have a more pronounced effect.

3.  Cut off the ring.  Freddie Roach will likely have Pacquiao go in and out in order to use his speed advantage, as well as, employ lateral movement.  Cotto, however, frequently was able to brilliantly cut off the ring and keep Joshua Clottey in front of him.  Pacman trapped against the corner or the ropes would have no choice but to trade in heavy exchange against Cotto.  Unfortunately, in my view, that would be a losing proposition for Pacquiao against an opponent like this. 

Sylvester Stallone and Roberto Duran during the filming of Rocky II.

Historic Implications:

This fight is a historic fight for the sport of boxing.  As mentioned earlier, a victory by Pacquiao allows him to claim an astonishing 7th title in his 7th weight class.  He would be the first and only boxer in history to claim such a feat.  If this was basketball, perhaps that would be equivalent to scoring 100 points in a game.  Or if this was baseball, perhaps (just perhaps) that would equate to hitting over 70 homeruns in a single season.  Or if this was football, perhaps that might amount to winning a Super Bowl three-peat.

The sports community will likely crown Manny Pacquiao as an all-time great and living legend should he defeat a legitimate welterweight star in Miguel Cotto.  Much like a Roberto Duran during his prime.  Unfortunately for boxing fans, Manny has stated on interviews that this fight could be his last prior to retirement.

Alternatively, a loss by either fighter still presents many exciting and intriguing matchup possibilities with several other boxers.  A loss by Pacquiao - if he chooses to fight into 2010 - can set up a showdown with the loser of Floyd Mayweather, Jr. vs. Juan Manuel Marquez.  Perhaps we may encounter a much anticipated Pacquiao vs. Marquez III in order to finally settle the long-winding debate between these two.  Shane Mosley would probably no longer want to fight Pacquiao should the latter lose, and thus a Marquez showdown might be Pacquiao's only credible option.

Given that Shane Mosley has a hard time finding an opponent (he may fight Andre Berto next), a Cotto loss could set up a big rematch between Cotto and Mosley.  Miguel Cotto could also avenge his defeat to Antonio Margarito in a rematch.  Both fights would be exciting.

Copyright 2009.  Marv Dumon.  May not be republished without author's written consent.