Einstein-like breakthrough in Climate Science (Part 1)

NASA Mar 20, 2007

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On May 19th MIT released a report that proves something.

“The most comprehensive modeling yet carried out on the likelihood of how much hotter the Earth's climate will get in this century shows that without rapid and massive action, the problem will be about twice as severe as previously estimated six years ago - and could be even worse than that.”

                                 – David Chandler MIT News Office

They proved group think still exists. That's all they proved.

How can this be? Their model seems so all encompasing... The key lay in this phrase, "selected so that each run has about an equal probability of being correct based on present observations and knowledge", from MIT's recent publication.

Because they are using mathematical equations that have been found to be incorrect, they cannot get repeatable results that can be applied systemically to the entire Earth’s climate that matches the data actually recorded. They can only get a probability. This is the basis for all of the differing results in Climatology today; no two reports seem to be the same, anyone reading the headlines over the last 45 years can attest to this.

As long as the Opacity of the Atmosphere is considered limitless in the calculations related to Radiative Transfer a precise model that matches global conditions cannot be made. This technical language may sound intimidating, however, the concepts are simple at their core. Our atmosphere is neither opaque, nor completely transparent. It is semi-transparent, and that is the basis of the error that current climate models are making. IPCC scientists, including those at MIT are not using the correct numbers for these concepts. This is one of the major reasons we see so many wildly different climate predictions. One group will report 6 degrees of warming over a century, another will say 1 degree, and none of them are accurate over the entire system.

Because the solutions each group comes up with vary so widely, and because their models cannot be applied systemically, only one conclusion can be made: there is an error in the math somewhere. Somewhere basic and fundamental, that all of these learned scientists are using, that all of their calculations depend on as the foundation of their Science.

In 2007, Dr Ferenc Miskolczi found that error and corrected it.

Dr. Ferenc M. Miskolczi released his work: "GREENHOUSE EFFECT IN SEMI-TRANSPARENT PLANETARY ATMOSPHERES” in 2007 in the Quarterly Journal of the Hungarian Meteorological Society. Based on his previous studies, in this ground breaking work, Dr. Miskolczi states and then mathematically proves, it is water - the Oceans and the water vapor they generate in the atmosphere, that acts as the mechanism of Equilibrium.

The answer lay in the complex science of Radiative Transfer. To clarify this complex science, I contacted Dr. Miklos Zagoni. He is a physicist and science historian at Eotvos Lorand University, Budapest, and is now a governmental adviser in his native country of Hungary. Dr Zagoni was once a solid supporter of Anthropogenic Global Warming – Man Made Global Warming. That is until Dr. Miskolczi corrected the math. He now works closely with Dr. Miskolczi, and other scientists who are mathematically describing reality as it is, not as the political establishment wants it to be.

In an email conversation he related the basic nature of the error:

“They [IPCC Climatologists] regard one specific parameter (opacity [of the atmosphere]) to be infinite in a specific approximation, according to an old and still unrecognized math error in the history of radiative transfer. Miskolczi revealed that error, gave the correct mathematical and physical solution, and the referred quantity became finite [specific] in his hands, and he became able to calculate its value correctly. His calculation proved that with finite opacity (or transparency --- we are talking about here not the visible, but the infrared wavelengths – the correct name of the parameter is optical depth) leads to constrained greenhouse effect and constrained greenhouse surface temperatures because cooling (exactly because of this transparency) is possible on the required level.”

In laypersons terms, this means that Earth’s atmosphere is a balanced system at equilibrium. This is demonstrated by the simple and unavoidable fact that we still have an atmosphere. If the system could not find an equilibrium, the air we breathe would have been long gone millions if not billions of years ago when CO₂ and other greenhouse gasses were at levels far greater than they are today. The correctness of his math is proven by his models; they match nearly exactly the actual vertical temperature readings we have recorded on earth. What’s more, because his math and physics are correct, this model can also be applied to Mars temperature data. When you have a model that matches the data, and can be applied over the whole system and get a match, you have the correct theory.

E=MC² is an equally true theory, and once scientists could perform the experiments needed to prove it, Einstein was hailed as a Genius and hero. In climate science, the theory is proven with computer models and real measured temperatures. Until Dr. Miskolczi solved the equation, no theory fit all the data. Dr. Miskolczi is today’s Einstein in Climate Science.

To put this in even simpler terms, consider a child’s teeter totter. On one side you have Greenhouse gasses such as CO₂. On the other you have the single greatest greenhouse gas on earth, Water Vapor. As you increase the CO₂ level, the water vapor side goes down. If CO2 levels drop, the water vapor side increases. This see-saw effect is referred to as equilibrium. The error in the mathematics used by MIT and other IPCC climatologists is in the base of this see-saw, “in the historic approximation of the basic transfer equation. Having the exact solution, the energy balance conditions can be correctly established and the work of the opposite powers to maintain the equilibrium can be precisely described.” according to Dr Zagoni. This is a drastic oversimplification, but it is descriptively accurate. Because they cannot precisely describe the basic energetic agencies of the teeter totter,

“they [believe] it can be it can be permanently turned up or down. But Miskolczi proved that any imbalance our CO₂ emissions caused was effectively countered by about 1 per cent decrease in the water vapor amount, and the system still fluctuates around its theoretical equilibrium value. His calculations on the NASA / NCAR atmospheric database proved that the Earth's greenhouse effect does not show any steady increase, regardless of our CO₂ emissions.”

CO₂ cannot cause global warming.

Science describes things accurately as they are, not as one wants them to be.

The IPCC is coming up with different numbers because they are using an incorrect model.

I asked Dr. Zagoni: “Is there a simple explanation as to why CO₂ is more or less irrelevant? Is it simply because the existence of so much water on earth, and there by so much water vapor, that CO₂ is simply overwhelmed by it?”

Dr. Zagoni replied, “Not overwhelmed, but dynamically controlled by the practically infinite reservoir of water vapor in the surface of the oceans. The system need not 'wait' for our CO₂ emissions if it had the possibility to warm. There is the tool at its hands to do that at any time. So it has been working on its energetically possible maximum for long before our emissions.”

Water vapor is in reality, the greatest heat source and heat sink on earth. 71% of the surface of the earth is water. Water can absorb energy and become vapor. It can release energy and fall as rain, which by definition is cooler than the vapor it condensed from – releasing heat. When you boil water, it becomes steam as it cools it condenses again into water.

When the earth warms, water vapor is released by the liquid sources that make up the majority of our planet. That water vapor will then condense, releasing that heat into the upper atmosphere and space as infrared radiation, and then falls back to earth as rain or snow. This is the very basic engine of our climate, and Dr.’s Zagoni and Miskolczi have mathematically proven it, they have solved the equation.

As Dr. Zagoni put it: “The earth is cooling on its possible maximum rate, [the] greenhouse effect of any further GHG [Green House Gas] release is countered by minor (almost immeasurably little) changes in the hydrological cycle.” The atmosphere corrects itself. If it were not capable of doing so, life would not have evolved on this planet.

The Earth, and her very great abundance of water, is quite literally a planet sized air-conditioner. And it’s been running for billions of years, through vast planet wide volcanic activity releasing much more green house gasses than man has ever released in his combined history, through massive asteroid strikes large enough to cause mass extinctions, even with such enormously catastrophic events the planet has the ability to return to equilibrium. Man’s emissions can effect no change in this fundamental defining quality of the planet. The Earth cannot warm up because of Greenhouse gasses.

Dr. Miskolczi may well have saved the people of this planet untold misery by finding and correcting this error. He has made it possible to accurately model not only our atmosphere, but that of Mars as well. That is how accurate his calculations are.

We could double our emissions of Carbon Dioxide, and the Earth's climate will maintain its equilibrium. We are after all talking about a planet sized system, 1.39 Billion cubic Kilometers of water, that’s 1.35 x10¹⁸ metric tons of water. If the Earth wanted to have a runaway greenhouse effect, water would be the way to do it, it is far more important and influential in the earth’s system than anything else. Including CO2, including Man.

Dr Zagoni's website, dedicated to Miskolczi’s new results can be found here: http://miskolczi.webs.com At this site, you can find all of Dr. Miskolczi's equations, graphs, and conclusions.

All of this being said, man can have an impact on climate, deforestation, and the wide scale removal of green plant growth which converts the sun's energy into sugars, can cause warming. When the sun's energy hits the solid ground it heats it up. And so ironically enough, increasing CO2 can cool the globe by increasing plant growth.

Another issue to consider is the sun’s output, which right now is about 1% less than normal, as the sun continues in a stage of very low sunspot activity. Tuesday we will look at NASA's report on the lack of sunspots and the very large impact this has on our climate. It cools things off, and sometimes very significantly.

Also on Tuesday, we will take a look at how this issue affects the civil rights of all Americans. We will take an honest look at why the Scientific Community, The UN, the IPCC and the Government of the United States are ignoring this breakthrough. It starts with money and it ends in congress. Legislation is being considered with the stated purpose of "saving the environment", The supporters of this legislation are using faulty science, and the average person's lack of knowledge about climate science in passing legislation that will 1) not affect the climate in the least and 2) will cost every American man woman and child billions of dollars for no purpose other than to line the pockets of the Government.

The terrible economic depression which will result will take many years to recover from. The ramifications of legislating according to bad science is enormous.

 A very special note of thanks to Dr. Miklos Zagoni, with out his assistance and input, this article would not be what it is.