White Sox spring slate opens with bad idea

The White Sox's first spring training game of the year started off perfectly. After Juan Pierre walked, Gordon Beckham laced a single to put runners on first and second with nobody out and Adam Dunn coming up.

And then Pierre and Beckham took off running. Pierre was thrown out at third, and Clayton Kershaw struck out both Dunn and Konerko to end the inning.

The result isn't what I'm concerned about. The execution isn't what I'm concerned about. It's the idea.

It's no secret Pierre likes to run—he attempted to steal 86 times last season, succeeding on 68 occasions. There are times and places where trying to steal a base isn't the worst thing in the world, but one of those is not with two on, no out, and a fantastic run producer at the plate.

Had Pierre successfully swiped third, it would've allowed him to score on a fly ball or ground ball. He would've scored one run. In a tie game in the bottom of the ninth inning, that stolen base attempt wouldn't have been as egregious of an offense. But in the first inning?

It was far from a good idea.

Let's talk run expectancy, which Tom Tango calls the "single most important thing to know about baseball." It's pretty simple: the run expectancy stat (RE24) tells you the average number of runs scored until the end of a half-inning from each base/out scenario.

In 2010, the run expectancy for having runners on first and second with nobody out is 1.42. While having runners on second and third with nobody out raise the situation's run expectancy to 1.96, it drops to 0.68 with a runner on second and one out—as the White Sox had after the failed double steal.

But the situation has to be considered along with the numbers. First of all, Dunn, being a left-hander, gave Dioner Navarro a clear line of sight to third base to make the throw. If a right-hander was up, the throw would be a little more difficult—most catcher still could make the throw, but it would be easier to be inaccurate without a clear view of the play.

Secondly, Dunn's propensity for strikeouts means he's far from a sure thing to hit a sacrifice fly. In fact, he's more likely to strike out (1,632 career K) than hit a fly ball (1,504 career FB). It's best to go the Earl Weaver route and shoot for a three-run home run—especially early in the game—than take a risk that could lessen the effect of a Dunn blast.

Dunn may not be batting third all that much this year, though—Ozzie Guillen said his lineup ideally has Alex Rios batting third, Dunn fourth, and Paul Konerko fifth. That doesn't change this analysis, though, because a scenario with runners on first and second with one out has a higher run expectancy (0.88) than second and one out (0.68).

Pierre generally has the green light to run whenever he wants. But he should get one of these when he's standing on second base with Rios, Dunn, Konerko, etc. coming to bat.

*****

For the record, there's one specific situation in which I have no problem with Pierre stealing, and that's with Gordon Beckham batting. Why? Because if Pierre attempts to steal second, it'll mean the Sox won't take the bat out of Beckham's hands and force him to bunt. Hopefully, Pierre succeeds in his attempt, but even if he doesn't, it means Beckham gets to swing away. And that's a good thing.

*****

The Sox really didn't have a standout performer in their first spring game, but a few players had stabs of success:

Alexei Ramirez was in midseason form, making a great play ranging to his right to end the fourth inning. He also blooped in a single in one of his two at-bats.
Jordan Danks drove a ball to the opposite field for a double, which was great to see. Now, do it again. And don't strike out so much.
Donny Lucy singled in two runs and stole a base in his lone offensive appearance of the game. Donnyacs rejoice!

And on the bad side...

Miguel Socolovich probably didn't deserve to have as poor an outing as he did (0.2 innings, four runs), but bad things happen when you walk three batters in less than an inning's work. He quietly had emerged as a darkhorse bullpen candidate over the last few weeks, but his performance Monday likely set whatever chance he had to make the opening day roster back a few miles.
Adam Dunn struck out twice in three plate appearances, all of which came against left-handers. He walked his other time up. This isn't a surprise—he has a 35.3 percent strikeout rate against lefties in his career, about four percent higher than his rate against righties—but it more was a case of ruining our collective buzz.
Josh Phegley made an absolutely horrendous throw on a stolen base attempt in the ill-fated fifth inning. Granted, the throw down to second was tough because Justin Sellers was crossing Phegley's path as he trotted down to first base for a walk, but that doesn't make up for the fact the throw went into left-center field. Phegley gets a pass, though, given his blood platelet disorder that plagued him for the last few years robbed him of quite a bit of playing time.

*****

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