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In four years with the White Sox, Jim Thome had a .933 OPS. (AP photo/Mark Avery)
Andruw Jones, Mark Kotsay, Omar Vizquel, and Jayson Nix: it's officially on you to prove your manager right.
Late Monday night, Ozzie Guillen decided he didn't want to bring Jim Thome back, opting to use a rotation of DHs.
While Thome's skills were in decline, he was a great presence in the middle of the White Sox' order ever since coming to the Sox from Philadelphia following the 2005 World Series.
From 2006-2009, Thome led the White Sox in home runs (134), OBP (.391), OPS (.933), walks (362), and was second only to Jermaine Dye in RBIs (369) and runs scored (335). And he did it all while being described as the perfect teammate.
So why did the White Sox let arguably their best offensive player of the last four years go when he wanted to return at a likely discount price? Because Ozzie Guillen didn't want a full-time designated hitter.
The reasoning behind Guillen's decision—and make no mistake, it was Guillen's decision—was that he wanted to have the DH spot open so Carlos Quentin or Paul Konerko could stay in the lineup while taking the occasional day off from playing the field. Those intentions are good, especially given Quentin's injury-filled history and Konerko's age.
But the execution could come back to cost the team later in the year.
CHONE projects Jones and Kotsay—who likely will see the majority of the DH at-bats—to have below average years. For Jones, it calls for a .324 wOBA, although with 20 home runs in 394 at-bats.
It's much worse for Kotsay, who CHONE projects to have a .309 wOBA with just six home runs in 366 at-bats. For reference, the median wOBA for designated hitters with 300 or more at-bats in 2009 was .340.
And CHONE projects Thome's wOBA to be .351.
Now, CHONE isn't the gospel. What it projects is by no means guaranteed to be true. But the way a projection like that should be viewed is that the projected stat line has the highest probability of being true within a reasonable range.
Jones could surprise everybody and hit 30 home runs. Kotsay could surprise everybody with a good OBP. That's why baseball is a game.
But to expect either to do so wouldn't be entirely reasonable. Jones hasn't had a really productive offensive season since 2006 while Kotsay hasn't since 2004. Why should either be expected to revive their careers well into their 30's?
When Jones was signed and Kotsay was brought back, I was in favor of both moves because I expected both to fill bench roles. Now that they're going to be expected to do more than that, I'm much less enthused with the moves.
Especially in the face of a DH who can still hit and was willing to come back.
Comments
Thome will be missed. This move will be critiqued all year long.
By mid-year, Danks and Viciedo will be ready. Then, the argument would be over making room for them.
Danks is at least a year away. Danks strikes out way too much and an injury cost him a lot of playing time last year to work on his game. Viciedo, while he improved his hitting as the year went on, also has a lot of work to do, both in the field and in the batters box. Both could be september callups though.
Long story short, neither Danks nor Viciedo can make up for Thome's left handed power and obp.
I don't see Danks or Viciedo contributing until 2011 at the earliest. A mid-season trade is the most likely scenario to fill the offensive hole at DH.
I like how leadoff hitter became a "position" prioritized this offseason while an actual position was neglected
One of the worst accomplishments of the current regime is convincing fans that leadoff is a position. So yeah, they addressed a phantom position while kicking a real one to the curb.
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