In the past few days, the Sun has been very active, culminating in a solar mass ejection (CME) on Thursday, which blasted a strong wave of energized particles from the Sun and toward the Earth. On Friday, solar experts forecast that the CME would hit Earth sometime yesterday evening. Well, things changed and the CME didn't impact until this morning, which means that now tonight should offer the best opportunities for seeing the Northern Lights, also known as aurora.
On Spaceweather.com, updated solar activity forecasts have been posted to reflect this change in timing. Current forecasts: within the next 24-48 hours, Spaceweather is calling for a 50% chance of active geomagnetic activity with a 25% chance of a minor storm at high latitudes. At mid latitudes (like Cleveland), these numbers are 40% and 20%, respectively.
For us living in the Northern hemisphere, auroras are common in high latitudes such as Alaska, Canada, the Scandinavian countries, and other such high-latitude places. For those at mid latitudes, such as Cleveland's 41 degrees North, auroras don't find their way into these skies very often.
However, it never hurts to look.
Right now, the Sun is headed for solar maximum, the peak in activity in its 11-year cycle. Because blasts of energy from the Sun are sure to become more powerful and frequent in the future, the chances of aurora working their way down to the continental United States is sure to increase in the coming years. In May, 2005, I saw a stunning display of auroras that ranged from blue-violet overhead to green curtains near the horizon from the Cleveland, Ohio area. Just last October, the Sun produced a stunning, unexpected display of aurora over Ohio that stretched, in some places, as far South as Texas. .
So how about the coming days?
Unfortunately, predicting aurora, and more specifically, where exactly they will appear, is very much a guessing game. To help one's odds of seeing the Northern Lights (and eliminate the need to keep poking one's head out into the cold night), sign up for Spaceweather's phone alert system, which can be set to call you when aurora are predicted to be visible over your location, wherever that may be.
As the last part of the puzzle, be sure to keep an eye on the Cleveland weather forecastand, for hour-by-hour cloud predictions, the Cleveland Clear Sky Clock. The good news: at least in the Cleveland area, thins are looking to be clear Saturday night, exactly when the CME will be impact the atmosphere. Live somewhere else? Find a clockand see if it will be clear near you.
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