Raleigh Weather Examiner
Hey guys, it has been a trying week, so I haven’t had the time to update the column as much as usual, and I apologize for that. I will explain later when I can.
An anomalous cold pattern for early March has set up and this could lead to a threat for a significant winter storm next week far to the south.
The scenario is this, a s/w is going to move into the Pacific NW and drop into the central/southern Plains this weekend and the lower Mississippi River Valley early next week. This system looks to cut off from the mean flow and drop well to the south into the Deep South and Southeast. However, this system will be positively tilted for a while becoming neutrally tilted over the Southeast and possibly negatively tilted in time.
The GFS has been furthest south for the most part with meaningful snow falling over Georgia/SC and southern NC, while the ECMWF has been further north with meaningful snow over east TN/KY/VA/N Ga/Carolinas. This is a very intriguing setup with a lot of potential. The main hold back will be boundary layer warmth as it is early march, but a strong enough system will overcome this. The Euro ensemble supports the operational Euro’s solution and many of the 18z GFS ensemble members are similar too or even better looking than the 18z operational GFS. There are some similarities to the great 2/10/73 winter storm over the South, although this one will not be as cold or as far reaching. The only major global model not on board right now is the GGEM.
Stay tuned, I will post tomorrow in some form or another and as this threat evolves I will stay on top of it. Thanks for reading.