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Wet and chilly weather returns to Texas

This computer model is indicating that central Texas could see .25 inch to .50 inch of rain by Thursday morning.
This computer model is indicating that central Texas could see .25 inch to .50 inch of rain by Thursday morning.
NOAA/NCEP, WeatherBELL

Discussion
A weak cold front moved through the area last night and is currently stationary just south of the Brazos Valley. This front will move back north through the area as a warm front tonight, bringing southerly flow and a slightly more warm and humid air mass to the region. A stronger cold front will move through on Tuesday evening bringing breezy and much cooler conditions to the area. An upper level disturbance (associated with plentiful subtropical moisture) is currently located just west of Baja California. This disturbance will likely move east across Texas Tuesday through Wednesday night bringing lift and good rain chances to the region. Rainfall totals will likely average between .25 inch and .50 inch across the area by Wednesday night. The rain and clouds are expected to move out on Thursday morning as the disturbance moves east of the region. Northwesterly flow aloft will bring cool and dry conditions to the region on Thursday, with southerly flow and warmer temperatures likely returning on Friday as another upper level disturbance begins to approach. This next disturbance could bring Texas more rain chances by Sunday.

Forecast
Tuesday: Cloudy with a 50% chance of rain. High: 69, Low: 61.

Wednesday: Cloudy, much cooler, and breezy with rain likely. High: 50, Low: 45.

Thursday: Mostly sunny. High: 58, Low: 37.

Friday: Partly cloudy. High: 73, Low: 44.

Saturday: Partly to mostly cloudy. High: 75, Low: 52.