Discussion
Incredibly, with cold air abundantly in place across the U.S. and a major snow threat for West Texas (6-10 inches of snowfall likely in the Pecos Range, with some sleet making it as far east as Hempstead and Plantersville Thursday night), I am hearing from some sources that winter is over. And while I understand that a January Thaw of sorts will sweep across the eastern two-thirds of the nation between January 7 and 13, most of the computer models show a renewed plunge of Arctic air across most of the country in place by January 17. If not sooner.
A cold pocket aloft (and upper air disturbance) will lose most of its moisture connection as it slides north and eastward. It is entirely possible that the Interstate 35 corridor from Austin to Denton may see enough snow and/or sleet to coat roads and cause glazing Thursday and Friday night. But I do not see much potential for precipitation around Houston, just a possible skirmish effect in parts of Waller, Grimes, and Montgomery counties (especially Thursday night).
The nights will still be chilly through the weekend. That said, moderation is in store early next week as a disturbance ejecting from California will shift the flow pattern off of the Gulf of Mexico. Some of the computer models show a heavy rain and thunder event in Houston from this feature next Wednesday. Yet another storm in the sequence form the Pacific Ocean will start to shift the jet stream configuration on and after January 12, perhaps bringing more intense convection with strong winds and torrential rainfall to much of the Lone Star State. Only after the passage of that second system will the bitter north winds return the cold to the Bayou City. CFS, GFS and GGEM scenarios show an extensive cold wave which may last in a great deal of the nation well into February.
Useful Links
NWS Mesonet Observations
NWS radar image from Houston/Galveston, TX
CFSv2 Forecasts
The Forecast
Thursday: Sunshine through high cloudiness. Chilly. Highs 46 Porter Heights to 50 Freeport
Thursday Night: Cloudy with the risk of freezing drizzle and sleet. Unseasonably cold with lows 30 New Caney to 34 Clute
Friday: Cloudy and cold with some sleet or flurries in locations north and west of Houston. No major ice accumulations are expected. Highs 42 Kingwood to 46 Lake Jackson
Friday Night: Mostly cloudy and cold. Lows 32 Humble to 36 Angleton
Saturday: Partly sunny and warmer. Highs 59 Atascocita to 63 Juliff
Extended Outlook
Sunday: Mostly sunny and mild after a cold start. High 58, Low 31
Monday: Mostly sunny and milder. High 66, Low 37
Tuesday: Increasing cloudiness, breezy and mild. Rain may develop at night. High 68, Low 44
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